Rest of Season Projection
AdrianCategoryBen
45K →66
3.61ERA →2.80
1.23WHIP →1.19
4–8W ←1–4
1–2SV0–2
Current Season
AdrianCategoryBen
35K →53
3.90ERA →1.92
1.07WHIP →0.93
4W ←2
1SV1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adrian Morejon
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.71 sits 1.39 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.321 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Ben Brown
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.80 is 1.06 above the ERA — regression coming
Adrian Morejon: 45 K / 3.61 ERA. Ben Brown: 66 K / 2.80 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).