Rest of Season Projection
AlexCategoryChase
7HR ←4
29R →50
22RBI →25
0SB →1
.218AVG →.227
Current Season
AlexCategoryChase
3HR →5
13R →36
10RBI →18
0SB →1
.234AVG →.269
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alex Freeland
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.297)
Chase Meidroth
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.347 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.290 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
Alex Freeland: 7 HR / 29 R. Chase Meidroth: 4 HR / 50 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).