Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryJack
35K →37
3.69ERA3.69
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W →2–5
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
AndrewCategoryJack
20K →24
4.18ERA →2.78
1.52WHIP →1.01
1W →2
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Morris
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.40 sits 0.70 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.386 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Jack Dreyer
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.238 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.21 is 0.44 above the ERA — regression coming
Andrew Morris: 35 K / 3.69 ERA. Jack Dreyer: 37 K / 3.69 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).