Rest of Season Projection
BrennanCategoryPeyton
34K →39
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W ←1–3
0SV0
Current Season
BrennanCategoryPeyton
18K18
3.70ERA →3.57
1.23WHIP ←1.30
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brennan Bernardino
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.63 sits 0.47 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Peyton Gray
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.50 is 0.40 above the ERA — regression coming
Brennan Bernardino: 34 K / 3.70 ERA. Peyton Gray: 39 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).