Rest of Season Projection
BrennanCategoryScott
34K →41
3.70ERA ←3.72
1.24WHIP ←1.26
2–5W ←1–2
0SV →1–5
Current Season
BrennanCategoryScott
18K →22
3.70ERA →3.08
1.23WHIP →0.99
2W ←1
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brennan Bernardino
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.63 sits 0.47 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Scott Barlow
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.153 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.00 is 0.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Brennan Bernardino: 34 K / 3.70 ERA. Scott Barlow: 41 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).