Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryLuke
30K →38
3.70ERA →3.67
1.24WHIP1.24
2–6W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryLuke
20K →25
2.33ERA ←2.77
0.93WHIP ←1.04
2W2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.32 is 1.11 above the ERA — regression coming
Luke Weaver
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.234 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.23 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
Chase Shugart: 30 K / 3.70 ERA. Luke Weaver: 38 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).