Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryNoah
98K ←82
4.46ERA →3.95
1.30WHIP →1.24
5–11W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryNoah
57K ←48
2.95ERA ←4.61
1.16WHIP ←1.41
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.65 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Noah Cameron
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.95)
Connelly Early: 98 K / 4.46 ERA. Noah Cameron: 82 K / 3.95 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).