Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryRyan
31K ←24
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W →2–5
0SV0
Current Season
ConnorCategoryRyan
15K ←12
3.12ERA →2.75
1.38WHIP →1.17
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Seabold
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.11 sits 0.99 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.339 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Ryan Thompson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.68 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Connor Seabold: 31 K / 3.70 ERA. Ryan Thompson: 24 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).