Rest of Season Projection
GordonCategoryMatt
23K →42
3.85ERA →3.70
1.26WHIP →1.24
3–8W ←1–3
1–2SV ←0
Current Season
GordonCategoryMatt
14K →17
1.80ERA ←3.86
0.90WHIP ←1.29
4W ←1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gordon Graceffo
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.169 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.31 is 3.64 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Strahm
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.97)
Gordon Graceffo: 23 K / 3.85 ERA. Matt Strahm: 42 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).