Rest of Season Projection
GrantCategoryTroy
94K ←34
4.38ERA →4.10
1.37WHIP →1.30
3–7W →4–9
0SV0
Current Season
GrantCategoryTroy
53K ←4
3.95ERA →1.42
1.33WHIP →0.95
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Grant Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.53 is 0.67 above the ERA — regression coming
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.47 is 2.73 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Grant Holmes: 94 K / 4.38 ERA. Troy Melton: 34 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).