Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryMatt
33K →38
3.70ERA3.69
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W ←1–2
0SV →1–3
Current Season
JakeCategoryMatt
20K →27
5.00ERA →4.68
1.33WHIP →1.24
1W1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake Bird
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.347 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Matt Festa
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.37)
Jake Bird: 33 K / 3.70 ERA. Matt Festa: 38 K / 3.69 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).