Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryPeyton
33K →39
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W1–3
0SV0
Current Season
JakeCategoryPeyton
20K ←18
5.00ERA →3.57
1.33WHIP →1.30
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake Bird
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.347 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Peyton Gray
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.50 is 0.40 above the ERA — regression coming
Jake Bird: 33 K / 3.70 ERA. Peyton Gray: 39 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).