Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryTyler
33K ←26
3.70ERA →3.61
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–3W ←1–2
0SV →2–4
Current Season
JakeCategoryTyler
20K ←16
5.00ERA →2.36
1.33WHIP →1.13
1W1
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake Bird
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.347 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Tyler Rogers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.28)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jake Bird: 33 K / 3.70 ERA. Tyler Rogers: 26 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).