Rest of Season Projection
KeatonCategoryTommy
30K →40
3.66ERA ←3.69
1.24WHIP1.24
1–2W ←0–0
0SV0
Current Season
KeatonCategoryTommy
22K →26
2.45ERA ←3.68
0.90WHIP ←1.18
1W ←0
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Keaton Winn
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.211 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.91 is 0.51 above the ERA — regression coming
Tommy Nance
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.40)
Keaton Winn: 30 K / 3.66 ERA. Tommy Nance: 40 K / 3.69 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).