Rest of Season Projection
KyleCategoryRyan
13HR ←5
34R ←24
25RBI →53
2SB →5
.232AVG.232
Current Season
KyleCategoryRyan
4HR ←3
18R ←9
13RBI →20
1SB →2
.221AVG →.278
What Each Player's System Trusts
Kyle Stowers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.302)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ryan Vilade
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.329 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.307 is 0.043 below the surface — regression coming
Kyle Stowers: 13 HR / 34 R. Ryan Vilade: 5 HR / 24 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).