Rest of Season Projection
StevenCategoryZack
76K ←66
5.24ERA5.26
1.39WHIP →1.35
5–11W5–11
0SV0
Current Season
StevenCategoryZack
35K35
4.67ERA ←5.01
1.24WHIP ←1.37
4W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Steven Matz
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.85 +1.75 vs league with no luck excuse
Zack Littell
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.89 is 1.13 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Steven Matz: 76 K / 5.24 ERA. Zack Littell: 66 K / 5.26 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).