Rest of Season Projection
BrayanCategoryColson
4HR →16
42R42
43RBI →54
14SB ←2
.252AVG ←.194
Current Season
BrayanCategoryColson
4HR →15
26R →28
27RBI →36
9SB ←1
.293AVG ←.229
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brayan Rocchio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.317 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.315 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Colson Montgomery
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.326)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Brayan Rocchio: 4 HR / 42 R. Colson Montgomery: 16 HR / 42 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).