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LeadersBatters

Stable skill above league — the buys the underlying numbers earn.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Freddie Freeman vs	LAD	Elite contact still producing — Freeman at .383 xwOBA. xwOBA .383 stable · wOBA .375 below xwOBA	Buy
2	Bryce Harper vs	PHI	Contact quality still elite — Harper at .391 xwOBA. xwOBA .391 stable · wOBA .372 below xwOBA	Buy
3	Gary Sánchez vs	MIL	Expected production unwavering — Sánchez at .374 xwOBA. xwOBA .374 stable · wOBA .363 below xwOBA	Buy
4	Brandon Nimmo vs	TEX	Contact quality far ahead of results — Nimmo at .379 xwOBA. xwOBA .379 stable · wOBA .330 below xwOBA	Buy
5	Pete Alonso vs	BAL	Elite contact quality earning its keep — Alonso, .376 xwOBA. xwOBA .376 stable · wOBA .355 below xwOBA	Buy

Stable skill above league — the buys the underlying numbers earn.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Gerrit Cole vs	NYY	Skill outperforming ERA by more than half a run — Cole, 3.48 xERA. xERA 3.48 stable · ERA 4.04 above xERA	Buy
2	Jacob deGrom vs	TEX	Still elite, zero luck — deGrom's 30.4% K-rate. xERA 3.43 stable · ERA 3.49 above xERA	Buy
3	Drew Anderson vs	DET	Underlying skills a full run better than ERA — Anderson, 3.21 xERA. xERA 3.21 stable · ERA 4.18 above xERA	Buy
4	Sandy Alcantara vs	MIA	Smoke without fire — Alcantara at 3.74 xERA. xERA 3.74 stable · ERA 4.00 above xERA	Buy
5	Lake Bachar vs	MIA	Elite contact management backed by steady skills — Bachar, 3.19 xERA. xERA 3.19 stable · ERA 3.58 above xERA	Buy
6	Andre Pallante vs	STL	Better than ERA suggests — Pallante at 3.74 xERA. xERA 3.74 stable · ERA 3.96 above xERA	Buy
7	Adrian Morejon vs	SD	Electric stuff way better than 3.42 ERA — Morejon's xERA 2.49. xERA 2.49 stable · ERA 3.42 above xERA	Buy
8	Reid Detmers vs	LAA	ERA lying by a full run — Detmers at 3.38 xERA. xERA 3.38 stable · ERA 4.39 above xERA	Buy

Skill above the surface results — buy the gap before it corrects up.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Edmundo Sosa vs	PHI	Stable .340 xwOBA, .272 wOBA — buy the 68-point gap. xwOBA .340 stable · wOBA .272 — buy the .068 gap	Buy Low
2	Austin Wells vs	NYY	56 points of hard-hit production underpaid — Wells at .285 xwOBA. xwOBA .285 stable · wOBA .229 — buy the .056 gap	Buy Low

Skill above the surface results — buy the gap before it corrects up.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Jack Perkins vs	ATH	Deceptive 2.65-run ERA gap — Perkins, 4.22 xERA. ERA 6.87 vs xERA 4.22 — buy the 2.65-run gap	Buy Low
2	Aaron Nola vs	PHI	Underlying K-BB strong, but ERA bloated by .322 BABIP — Nola, 1.52-run xERA gap. ERA 5.68 vs xERA 4.16 — buy the 1.52-run gap	Buy Low
3	Tyler Mahle vs	SF	Over a run of bad luck baked into that ERA — Mahle at 4.19 xERA. ERA 5.31 vs xERA 4.19 — buy the 1.12-run gap	Buy Low
4	Dustin May vs	STL	ERA lying by 0.81 runs — May at 3.74 xERA. ERA 4.55 vs xERA 3.74 — buy the 0.81-run gap	Buy Low
5	José Suarez vs	ATH	Skill buried by .372 BABIP — Suarez at 3.56 xERA. ERA 4.29 vs xERA 3.56 — buy the 0.73-run gap	Buy Low
6	Jesús Luzardo vs	PHI	Skill outpacing results by 0.55 runs — Luzardo's xERA is 2.96. ERA 3.51 vs xERA 2.96 — buy the 0.55-run gap	Buy Low
7	Brent Suter vs	LAA	Half-run gap between ERA and skill — Suter at 4.10 xERA ERA 4.64 vs xERA 4.10 — buy the 0.54-run gap	Buy Low
8	Aaron Ashby vs	MIL	Real skill hiding behind a .343 BABIP — Ashby at 3.12 xERA. ERA 3.56 vs xERA 3.12 — buy the 0.44-run gap	Buy Low

Hot surface numbers the skill won't sustain — sell high before the regression.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Alika Williams vs	ATH	Nothing but empty contact — Williams, .223 xwOBA. wOBA .305 vs xwOBA .223 — +.082 mirage	Sell High
2	Tyler Tolbert vs	KC	Hiding a .312 xwOBA under a .394 wOBA — 82-point BABIP gap. wOBA .394 vs xwOBA .312 — +.082 mirage	Sell High
3	Esmerlyn Valdez vs	PIT	76-point wOBA bubble inflated by .404 BABIP — Valdez. wOBA .450 vs xwOBA .374 — +.076 mirage	Sell High
4	Luis Campusano vs	SD	Living off a .370 BABIP illusion — Campusano at .344 xwOBA. wOBA .415 vs xwOBA .344 — +.071 mirage	Sell High
5	Donovan Walton vs	ATH	60-point wOBA illusion — Walton at .372, scouted .312 xwOBA. wOBA .372 vs xwOBA .312 — +.060 mirage	Sell High
6	Nicky Lopez vs	TEX	Bat speed triple-A, results MLB — Lopez at .257 xwOBA. wOBA .316 vs xwOBA .257 — +.059 mirage	Sell High
7	Keibert Ruiz vs	WSH	Bat is a mirage — .055 xwOBA gap overstates Ruiz. wOBA .329 vs xwOBA .274 — +.055 mirage	Sell High
8	Jake McCarthy vs	COL	Exit velo says the .369 wOBA is a lie — Jake at 85.0 mph avg. wOBA .369 vs xwOBA .314 — +.055 mirage	Sell High
9	Tristan Peters vs	CWS	Living on a .354 BABIP bubble — Peters at .308 xwOBA. wOBA .361 vs xwOBA .308 — +.053 mirage	Sell High

Hot surface numbers the skill won't sustain — sell high before the regression.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Gordon Graceffo vs	STL	Buried by a .183 BABIP — Graceffo's real ERA is 5.73. ERA 2.91 vs xERA 5.73 — 2.82 run gap	Sell High
2	Eduardo Rodriguez vs	AZ	Night-and-day gap between ERA and skill — Rodriguez, 5.06 xERA. ERA 2.29 vs xERA 5.06 — 2.77 run gap	Sell High
3	PJ Poulin vs	WSH	BABIP sheltering a 2.64-run gap — Poulin, 5.34 xERA. ERA 2.70 vs xERA 5.34 — 2.64 run gap	Sell High
4	Trent Thornton vs	CHC	Hiding behind a .185 BABIP mask — Thornton's 4.99 xERA. ERA 2.48 vs xERA 4.99 — 2.51 run gap	Sell High
5	Michael McGreevy vs	STL	A 2.33-run ERA/xERA gap says it's not real — McGreevy, 5.34 xERA. ERA 3.01 vs xERA 5.34 — 2.33 run gap	Sell High
6	Nick Martinez vs	TB	Pretender masquerading as an ace — Martinez, 2.02-run ERA-xERA gap. ERA 2.65 vs xERA 4.67 — 2.02 run gap	Sell High
7	Pierce Johnson vs	CIN	Runs on .243 BABIP luck — Johnson's real ERA is 6.23. ERA 4.23 vs xERA 6.23 — 2.00 run gap	Sell High
8	Gabe Speier vs	SEA	BABIP puppet turning back into a pumpkin — Speier, 2-run ERA/xERA gap. ERA 2.22 vs xERA 4.22 — 2.00 run gap	Sell High
9	Kevin Kelly vs	TB	Leaning on .238 BABIP luck — Kelly's xERA is 4.30. ERA 2.44 vs xERA 4.30 — 1.86 run gap	Sell High
10	Taylor Clarke vs	AZ	ERA hiding a .193 BABIP — Clarke, 4.42 xERA. ERA 2.59 vs xERA 4.42 — 1.83 run gap	Sell High

Skill below league and stable — cold streaks that are real, not bad luck.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Christian Vázquez vs	HOU	No damage even with the bat on ball — Vázquez, .242 xwOBA. xwOBA .242 stable · -.073 vs league	Sell
2	TJ Friedl vs	CIN	No impact whatsoever — Friedl at .242 xwOBA. xwOBA .242 stable · -.073 vs league	Sell

Skill below league and stable — cold streaks that are real, not bad luck.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Merrill Kelly vs	AZ	Whiff rate cratered 8 points below league — Kelly's 14.4% K-rate. xERA 7.44 stable · +3.34 vs league	Sell
2	Brayan Bello vs	BOS	No swing-and-miss, no luck excuse — Bello 6.08 xERA. xERA 6.08 stable · +1.98 vs league	Sell
3	Colin Rea vs	CHC	Strikeouts too scarce to survive — Rea at 16.8% K-rate, xERA 5.70. xERA 5.70 stable · +1.60 vs league	Sell
4	Michael Lorenzen vs	COL	No swing-and-miss, no escape — Lorenzen at 15.8% K-rate. xERA 5.55 stable · +1.45 vs league	Sell
5	Brady Singer vs	CIN	True talent a full run worse than the ERA — Singer, 5.51 xERA. xERA 5.51 stable · +1.41 vs league	Sell
6	Zach Agnos vs	COL	Can't miss bats — Agnos at 14.4% strikeout rate. xERA 5.51 stable · +1.41 vs league	Sell
7	Seth Lugo vs	KC	The ERA mask is slipping — Lugo, 5.48 xERA. xERA 5.48 stable · +1.38 vs league	Sell
8	Rhett Lowder vs	CIN	Real stuff, fake results — Lowder's 5.48 xERA. xERA 5.48 stable · +1.38 vs league	Sell
9	Patrick Corbin vs	TOR	Lost all swing-and-miss — Corbin at 17.5% K-rate. xERA 5.37 stable · +1.27 vs league	Sell
10	Mitch Keller vs	PIT	Strikeouts evaporated, damage inevitable — Keller, 5.37 xERA. xERA 5.37 stable · +1.27 vs league	Sell