Boards

verdict-native leaderboards, not stat dumps

LeadersBatters

Stable skill above league — the buys the underlying numbers earn.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Freddie Freeman vs	LAD	Contact skill outpacing the league — Freeman at .369 xwOBA. xwOBA .369 stable · wOBA .362 below xwOBA	Buy
2	Mike Trout vs	LAA	Barreling 15.6% of contact — Trout's xwOBA sits at .375. xwOBA .375 stable · wOBA .351 below xwOBA	Buy
3	Bryce Harper vs	PHI	Contact quality never in doubt — Harper at .391 xwOBA. xwOBA .391 stable · wOBA .384 below xwOBA	Buy
4	Aaron Judge vs	NYY	Still the hardest contact in the game — Judge at .411 xwOBA. xwOBA .411 stable · wOBA .381 below xwOBA	Buy

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LeadersPitchers

Stable skill above league — the buys the underlying numbers earn.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Zack Wheeler vs	PHI	Ace-level whiff and weak contact — Wheeler at 3.03 xERA. xERA 3.03 stable · ERA 3.23 above xERA	Buy
2	Jacob deGrom vs	TEX	Still missing bats at 97 — deGrom, 3.54 xERA. xERA 3.54 stable · ERA 3.96 above xERA	Buy
3	Kyle Hart vs	SD	Skill hidden under a .78-run ERA gap — Hart at 3.34 xERA. xERA 3.34 stable · ERA 4.12 above xERA	Buy
4	Tyler Glasnow vs	LAD	Miss bats, suppress contact — Glasnow at 2.64 xERA. xERA 2.64 stable · ERA 3.12 above xERA	Buy
5	Max Fried vs	NYY	Skill outpitching the earned runs — Fried at 2.53 xERA. xERA 2.53 stable · ERA 2.73 above xERA	Buy
6	Tyler Alexander vs	TEX	Stingy contact allowed — Alexander at .279 xwOBA. xERA 3.22 stable · ERA 3.30 above xERA	Buy
7	Tyler Kinley vs	DET	Beating contact into the ground — Kinley holding .287 xwOBA. xERA 3.42 stable · ERA 3.49 above xERA	Buy
8	Ryan Yarbrough vs	NYY	Soft contact suppressing hard hits — Yarbrough at .288 xwOBA allowed. xERA 3.44 stable · ERA 3.91 above xERA	Buy
9	Gregory Soto vs	PIT	Power arsenal beating the luck tax — Soto, 2.85 xERA. xERA 2.85 stable · ERA 3.13 above xERA	Buy
10	Kevin Ginkel vs	AZ	Real skill under the inflated ERA — Ginkel's 3.62 xERA. xERA 3.62 stable · ERA 3.98 above xERA	Buy

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Buy-LowBatters

Skill above the surface results — buy the gap before it corrects up.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Ke'Bryan Hayes vs	CIN	Luck 97 points behind his contact — Hayes at .305 xwOBA. xwOBA .305 stable · wOBA .208 — buy the .097 gap	Buy Low
2	Will Smith vs	LAD	Barrels say the power is real — Smith's .379 xwOBA. xwOBA .379 stable · wOBA .317 — buy the .062 gap	Buy Low

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Buy-LowPitchers

Skill above the surface results — buy the gap before it corrects up.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Jack Perkins vs	ATH	Luck buried a real arm — Perkins' 2.47-run ERA gap. ERA 6.53 vs xERA 4.06 — buy the 2.47-run gap	Buy Low
2	José Alvarado vs	PHI	Luck drowning a live arm — Alvarado's .368 BABIP against. ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.84 — buy the 1.56-run gap	Buy Low
3	Grant Wolfram vs	BAL	Luck tax on a .349 BABIP — Wolfram's xERA sits at 3.49. ERA 4.86 vs xERA 3.49 — buy the 1.37-run gap	Buy Low
4	Connor Prielipp vs	MIN	Pitching better than the ERA shows — Prielipp's 4.11 xERA. ERA 5.25 vs xERA 4.11 — buy the 1.14-run gap	Buy Low
5	Andrew Morris vs	MIN	True form is 3.13, not 4.07 — Morris is unlucky. ERA 4.07 vs xERA 3.13 — buy the 0.94-run gap	Buy Low
6	Taylor Rogers vs	MIN	Buy the .47-run luck gap — Rogers at 4.23 xERA. ERA 4.70 vs xERA 4.23 — buy the 0.47-run gap	Buy Low
7	Shane Drohan vs	MIL	Buying the .42-run gap — Drohan's 3.67 xERA. ERA 4.09 vs xERA 3.67 — buy the 0.42-run gap	Buy Low
8	Dustin May vs	MIL	Velocity says the ERA is a lie — May's 4.29 xERA. ERA 4.69 vs xERA 4.29 — buy the 0.40-run gap	Buy Low
9	Aaron Ashby vs	MIL	Luck tax on a 97-mph arm — Ashby at 2.85 xERA. ERA 3.25 vs xERA 2.85 — buy the 0.40-run gap	Buy Low

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PretendersBatters

Hot surface numbers the skill won't sustain — sell high before the regression.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Alex Jackson vs	MIN	A .465 BABIP is doing all the work — Jackson's real xwOBA is .223. wOBA .336 vs xwOBA .223 — +.113 mirage	Sell High
2	Alika Williams vs	ATH	Empty .313 wOBA propped by a .239 xwOBA — Williams fools no one. wOBA .313 vs xwOBA .239 — +.074 mirage	Sell High
3	Brock Rodden vs	SEA	Luck inflating a punchless bat — Rodden's real wOBA is .235. wOBA .302 vs xwOBA .235 — +.067 mirage	Sell High
4	Cody Freeman vs	TEX	Luck carrying a 1.4% barrel bat — Freeman's xwOBA .230. wOBA .295 vs xwOBA .230 — +.065 mirage	Sell High
5	Héctor Rodríguez vs	CIN	Hot streak built on whiffs — Rodríguez's real wOBA is .277. wOBA .341 vs xwOBA .277 — +.064 mirage	Sell High
6	Eduardo Valencia vs	DET	Luck padding a .382 wOBA — Valencia's real mark is .323. wOBA .382 vs xwOBA .323 — +.059 mirage	Sell High
7	Esteury Ruiz vs	MIA	Luck propping up a whiff-prone bat — Ruiz's real wOBA is .289. wOBA .340 vs xwOBA .289 — +.051 mirage	Sell High
8	Keibert Ruiz vs	WSH	Empty average propped by luck — Ruiz's real xwOBA is .285. wOBA .333 vs xwOBA .285 — +.048 mirage	Sell High

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PretendersPitchers

Hot surface numbers the skill won't sustain — sell high before the regression.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Tyler Schweitzer vs	CWS	Bailed out by a .274 BABIP — Schweitzer's real ERA is 5.32. ERA 3.06 vs xERA 5.32 — 2.26 run gap	Sell High
2	Paul Blackburn vs	NYY	A .225 BABIP is doing the heavy lifting — Blackburn's real ERA is 3.54. ERA 1.72 vs xERA 3.54 — 1.82 run gap	Sell High
3	Gordon Graceffo vs	STL	Riding a .207 BABIP — Graceffo's real ERA is 4.50. ERA 2.70 vs xERA 4.50 — 1.80 run gap	Sell High
4	Eduardo Rodriguez vs	AZ	Ace facade propped up by a .269 BABIP — xERA 4.32. ERA 2.55 vs xERA 4.32 — 1.77 run gap	Sell High
5	Taylor Clarke vs	AZ	Smoke and mirrors minus the smoke — Clarke's .207 BABIP hides a 4.20 xERA. ERA 2.46 vs xERA 4.20 — 1.74 run gap	Sell High
6	Yoendrys Gómez vs	MIN	BABIP saving a 5.18 xERA — Gómez isn't this good. ERA 3.50 vs xERA 5.18 — 1.68 run gap	Sell High
7	A.J. Minter vs	MIN	Luck carrying a .233 BABIP — Minter's real ERA is 3.24. ERA 1.66 vs xERA 3.24 — 1.58 run gap	Sell High
8	Trent Thornton vs	CHC	Luck propping up a 15.3% strikeout arm — Thornton's 5.08 xERA. ERA 3.50 vs xERA 5.08 — 1.58 run gap	Sell High
9	Kevin Kelly vs	TB	Regression riding a .226 BABIP — Kelly's real ERA 3.65. ERA 2.13 vs xERA 3.65 — 1.52 run gap	Sell High
10	Josh Ekness vs	MIA	Hiding behind soft contact, 15.8% Ks — Ekness's real ERA is 4.69. ERA 3.18 vs xERA 4.69 — 1.51 run gap	Sell High

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LosersBatters

Skill below league and stable — cold streaks that are real, not bad luck.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Brenton Doyle vs	CWS	Swing-and-miss bat with nothing behind it — Doyle at .234 xwOBA. xwOBA .234 stable · -.081 vs league	Sell
2	Christian Vázquez vs	HOU	Punchless catcher — Vázquez at .238 xwOBA. xwOBA .238 stable · -.077 vs league	Sell
3	Tyler Heineman vs	LAA	No hard contact anywhere — Heineman at 12% hard-hit. xwOBA .239 stable · -.076 vs league	Sell

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LosersPitchers

Skill below league and stable — cold streaks that are real, not bad luck.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Tomoyuki Sugano vs	COL	Strikeouts wiped out, contact crushed — Sugano at 6.80 xERA. xERA 6.80 stable · +2.70 vs league	Sell
2	Merrill Kelly vs	AZ	Strikeout stuff gone — Kelly's xERA sits at 6.71. xERA 6.71 stable · +2.61 vs league	Sell
3	Zac Gallen vs	AZ	Strikeouts vanished — Gallen's 6.59 xERA is no fluke. xERA 6.59 stable · +2.49 vs league	Sell
4	Nick Lodolo vs	CIN	Luck masking a broken profile — Lodolo's true 6.42 xERA. xERA 6.42 stable · +2.32 vs league	Sell
5	Michael Lorenzen vs	TOR	Can't miss bats at 14.6% K — Lorenzen's 6.02 xERA is real. xERA 6.02 stable · +1.92 vs league	Sell
6	Randy Vásquez vs	SD	Luck hiding a 15% strikeout arm — Vásquez at 5.57 xERA. xERA 5.57 stable · +1.47 vs league	Sell
7	Colin Rea vs	CHC	Nothing under the hood — Rea's real ERA is 5.54. xERA 5.54 stable · +1.44 vs league	Sell
8	Mitch Farris vs	LAA	Luck hiding a bad arm — Farris at 5.39 xERA. xERA 5.39 stable · +1.29 vs league	Sell
9	Michael McGreevy vs	STL	Luck masking a soft arm — McGreevy at 5.36 xERA. xERA 5.36 stable · +1.26 vs league	Sell
10	Kyle Finnegan vs	DET	Luck propping up a 5.32 xERA — Finnegan walking 13.2%. xERA 5.32 stable · +1.22 vs league	Sell

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