Boards
verdict-native leaderboards, not stat dumps
Leaders
Stable skill above league — the buys the underlying numbers earn.
| # | Player | Team | Headline | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Elite control, elite contact suppression — Skenes, 2.28 xERA. xERA 2.28 stable · ERA 2.89 above xERA | Buy |
| 2 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | Executing at ace level — Ashcraft, 2.76 xERA. xERA 2.76 stable · ERA 2.77 above xERA | Buy |
| 3 | Alec Burleson | STL | Power-and-contact combo undervalued by 28 points — Burleson at .372 xwOBA. xwOBA .372 stable · wOBA .344 below xwOBA | Buy |
| 4 | Iván Herrera | STL | Elite contact, real power — Herrera at .366 xwOBA. xwOBA .366 stable · wOBA .360 below xwOBA | Buy |
| 5 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Elite command and contact control — Rasmussen, 3.30 xERA. xERA 3.30 stable · ERA 3.36 above xERA | Buy |
| 6 | Jonathan Aranda | TB | Contact quality deserves better — Aranda, .387 xwOBA. xwOBA .387 stable · wOBA .379 below xwOBA | Buy |
Pretenders
Hot surface numbers the skill won't sustain — sell high before the regression.
| # | Player | Team | Headline | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tomoyuki Sugano | COL | Hiding a 7.71 xERA — Sugano's .251 BABIP won't last. ERA 4.01 vs xERA 7.71 — 3.70 run gap | Sell High |
| 2 | Gordon Graceffo | STL | The league hasn't noticed he's a 5.37 xERA — Graceffo ERA 1.80 vs xERA 5.37 — 3.57 run gap | Sell High |
| 3 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | Hiding behind a .212 BABIP — Arrighetti xERA 4.68 ERA 1.34 vs xERA 4.68 — 3.34 run gap | Sell High |
| 4 | Cionel Pérez | NYM | The ERA is already ugly, but the skills are even worse — Pérez at 8.66 xERA. ERA 5.82 vs xERA 8.66 — 2.84 run gap | Sell High |
| 5 | Michael McGreevy | STL | Runs a 2.68-run gap between ERA and xERA — McGreevy's 5.66 xERA. ERA 2.98 vs xERA 5.66 — 2.68 run gap | Sell High |
| 6 | David Fry | CLE | 67 wOBA points borrowed from luck — Fry's .280 xwOBA. wOBA-xwOBA +.067 | Sell High |
| 7 | Andrew Vaughn | MIL | BABIP fairy carrying him by 66 points — Vaughn, .413 wOBA. wOBA-xwOBA +.066 | Sell High |
| 8 | Christian Yelich | MIL | Hollow production floating on .371 BABIP — Yelich at .283 xwOBA wOBA-xwOBA +.061 | Sell High |
Losers
Skill below league and stable — cold streaks that are real, not bad luck.
| # | Player | Team | Headline | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merrill Kelly | AZ | Can't miss bats at all — Kelly with 14.1% K-rate. xERA 7.29 stable · +3.19 vs league | Sell |
| 2 | Brady Singer | CIN | Worthless contact — Singer at 6.47 xERA. xERA 6.47 stable · +2.37 vs league | Sell |
| 3 | Kyle Freeland | COL | Deserved misery — Freeland at 6.35 xERA. xERA 6.35 stable · +2.25 vs league | Sell |
| 4 | Randy Vásquez | SD | Luck hiding a 6.23 xERA disaster — Vásquez xERA 6.23 stable · +2.13 vs league | Sell |
| 5 | Kyle Leahy | STL | Deserved 2-run gap between ERA and xERA — Leahy at 6.23 xERA. xERA 6.23 stable · +2.13 vs league | Sell |
Buy-Low
undervalued by results, supported by stable metrics — buy the dip
| # | Player | Team | Take | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Suarez | ATH | 0.45 BABIP against — that crater is noise, not talent. | Buy Low |
| 2 | Jack Perkins | ATH | 2.32-run gap between ERA and xERA. | Buy Low |
| 3 | Mason Fluharty | TOR | xERA 2.01 vs ERA 4.09 — 31.6% Ks + .377 BABIP. | Buy Low |
| 4 | Ryne Stanek | STL | 27.8% K rate with a .357 BABIP; buy the rebound. | Buy Low |
| 5 | Jeff Hoffman | TOR | 36.6% K-rate with .516 BABIP — buy the noise. | Buy Low |
| 6 | Andrew Painter | PHI | BABIP .337 masks a 4.71 xERA — buy the rebound. | Buy Low |
| 7 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | BABIP .036, xERA 3.16 — buy the gap. | Buy Low |
| 8 | José Alvarado | PHI | BABIP .464 hides a 3.45 xERA; buy the bounce. | Buy Low |
| 9 | Tanner Banks | PHI | BABIP .451; xERA 3.73 — regression candidate. | Buy Low |
| 10 | Jake Bird | NYY | BABIP .347 inflates ERA 1.2 runs above xERA. | Buy Low |
| 11 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | ERA 2.22 runs above xERA — biggest gap in sample. | Buy Low |
| 12 | Chris Paddack | CIN | xERA 4.77, ERA 6.9 — 2+ run gap deserves buy. | Buy Low |
| 13 | Juan Mejia | COL | 37% BABIP against fuels 2-run ERA-xERA gap. | Buy Low |
| 14 | Will Vest | DET | 3.86-run ERA–xERA gap — regression incoming. | Buy Low |
| 15 | Mike Burrows | HOU | xERA 4.11 vs ERA 5.4 — due for correction. | Buy Low |
| 16 | Sean Manaea | NYM | BABIP .343 cratering a 4.08 xERA. | Buy Low |
| 17 | Landen Roupp | SF | xERA 3.28 vs ERA 4.22 — 26.6% K rate backs it. | Buy Low |
| 18 | Mark Leiter Jr. | ATH | xERA 4.62, BABIP .361 — due for correction. | Buy Low |
| 19 | Andrew Morris | MIN | BABIP .347 inflates ERA; xERA 3.33 tells truth. | Buy Low |
| 20 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | BABIP .332 inflates ERA; xERA 4.62 tells truer story. | Buy Low |
| 21 | Edmundo Sosa | PHI | xwOBA .348, wOBA .264 – 84-point gap screams buy. | Buy Low |
| 22 | Patrick Bailey | CLE | BABIP .175 — 0.120 below league, unluckiest catcher. | Buy Low |
| 23 | Heriberto Hernández | MIA | BABIP .236 with 45% hard-hit; xwOBA .355. | Buy Low |
| 24 | Bo Bichette | NYM | 60-point xwOBA gap hides elite contact and K rate. | Buy Low |
| 25 | Will Smith | LAD | xwOBA 60 points above wOBA, 14% barrels wasted. | Buy Low |
| 26 | Lawrence Butler | ATH | Sub-.240 BABIP hiding a 46% hard-hit rate. | Buy Low |
| 27 | Chris Bassitt | BAL | .335 BABIP with a 14.7% K-rate – batted-ball luck. | Buy Low |
| 28 | Randal Grichuk | CWS | xwOBA .382, BABIP .275 — 54-point underperformance. | Buy Low |
| 29 | Henry Davis | PIT | .288 xwOBA with just a .237 wOBA; BABIP unluck. | Buy Low |
| 30 | Tyler Stephenson | CIN | BABIP 80 points below league; exit velo and barrels back it. | Buy Low |