Boards

verdict-native leaderboards, not stat dumps

LeadersBatters

Stable skill above league — the buys the underlying numbers earn.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Freddie Freeman vs	LAD	Contact skill still above league — Freeman at .363 xwOBA. xwOBA .363 stable · wOBA .348 below xwOBA	Buy
2	Mike Trout vs	LAA	Barrels still elite despite the whiffs — Trout at .381 xwOBA. xwOBA .381 stable · wOBA .354 below xwOBA	Buy
3	Bryce Harper vs	PHI	Contact quality carries a .379 xwOBA — Harper, no luck needed. xwOBA .379 stable · wOBA .375 below xwOBA	Buy
4	Aaron Judge vs	NYY	Contact quality off the charts — Judge at .396 xwOBA. xwOBA .396 stable · wOBA .372 below xwOBA	Buy
5	Pete Alonso vs	BAL	Contact quality outpacing the results — Alonso .402 xwOBA. xwOBA .402 stable · wOBA .379 below xwOBA	Buy

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LeadersPitchers

Stable skill above league — the buys the underlying numbers earn.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Zack Wheeler vs	PHI	Ace velo with a 2.88 xERA — Wheeler is real. xERA 2.88 stable · ERA 3.00 above xERA	Buy
2	Jacob deGrom vs	TEX	Ace skill buried under a 4.21 ERA — deGrom at 3.47 xERA. xERA 3.47 stable · ERA 4.21 above xERA	Buy
3	Kyle Hart vs	SD	Underperforming his own stuff — Hart at 3.65 xERA. xERA 3.65 stable · ERA 4.92 above xERA	Buy
4	Tyler Glasnow vs	LAD	Underlying 2.88 xERA outshining a 3.53 ERA — Glasnow. xERA 2.88 stable · ERA 3.53 above xERA	Buy
5	Max Fried vs	NYY	Ace skill backed by .246 xwOBA allowed — Fried. xERA 2.51 stable · ERA 2.80 above xERA	Buy
6	Tim Mayza vs	PHI	Skill fully banked, zero luck baked in — Mayza, 3.47 xERA. xERA 3.47 stable · ERA 3.48 above xERA	Buy
7	Ryan Yarbrough vs	NYY	Sneaky-quiet suppression beats the league — Yarbrough at 3.39 xERA. xERA 3.39 stable · ERA 3.69 above xERA	Buy
8	Gregory Soto vs	PIT	Soto's 97-mph heat backs a 3.03 xERA. xERA 3.03 stable · ERA 3.63 above xERA	Buy
9	Kevin Ginkel vs	AZ	Skill beating the ERA by half a run — Ginkel at 3.55 xERA. xERA 3.55 stable · ERA 4.12 above xERA	Buy
10	Jeff Hoffman vs	MIN	Missing bats at an elite clip — Hoffman's 34.9% K-rate. xERA 3.35 stable · ERA 3.54 above xERA	Buy

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Buy-LowBatters

Skill above the surface results — buy the gap before it corrects up.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Ke'Bryan Hayes vs	CIN	Contact quality says the .155 BABIP is the lie — Hayes .287 xwOBA. xwOBA .287 stable · wOBA .191 — buy the .096 gap	Buy Low

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Buy-LowPitchers

Skill above the surface results — buy the gap before it corrects up.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Gabriel Hughes vs	COL	Hughes is better than his 6.33 ERA says — 3.92 xERA. ERA 6.33 vs xERA 3.92 — buy the 2.41-run gap	Buy Low
2	Brady Basso vs	ATH	A .373 BABIP is burying a 3.98 xERA — Basso's real gap is 2.09 runs. ERA 6.07 vs xERA 3.98 — buy the 2.09-run gap	Buy Low
3	Jack Perkins vs	ATH	Two runs of bad luck baked in — Perkins 4.09 xERA ERA 6.10 vs xERA 4.09 — buy the 2.01-run gap	Buy Low
4	José Alvarado vs	PHI	Luck drowning a live arm — Alvarado's real ERA is 4.12. ERA 5.86 vs xERA 4.12 — buy the 1.74-run gap	Buy Low
5	Bryan King vs	HOU	King's 5.19 ERA oversells the damage — xERA just 4.09. ERA 5.19 vs xERA 4.09 — buy the 1.10-run gap	Buy Low
6	Jordan Hicks vs	CWS	Luck dragging a 2.85 xERA arm — Hicks owes 1.09 runs. ERA 3.94 vs xERA 2.85 — buy the 1.09-run gap	Buy Low
7	Andrew Morris vs	MIN	Luck dragging a 3.35 xERA under — Morris worth the wait. ERA 4.40 vs xERA 3.35 — buy the 1.05-run gap	Buy Low
8	Andrés Muñoz vs	SEA	Luck tax on a 99.8 heater — Muñoz's xERA says 3.27. ERA 4.24 vs xERA 3.27 — buy the 0.97-run gap	Buy Low
9	Grant Wolfram vs	BAL	BABIP chaos drowning real skills — Wolfram's 3.50 xERA. ERA 4.30 vs xERA 3.50 — buy the 0.80-run gap	Buy Low
10	Bryan Hudson vs	CWS	Luck-taxed arm beats the .332 BABIP — Hudson's 3.20 xERA. ERA 3.74 vs xERA 3.20 — buy the 0.54-run gap	Buy Low

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PretendersBatters

Hot surface numbers the skill won't sustain — sell high before the regression.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Adael Amador vs	COL	Contact luck can't hide a 91-point wOBA mirage — Amador wOBA .365 vs xwOBA .274 — +.091 mirage	Sell High
2	Joshua Kuroda-Grauer vs	ATH	Riding a .417 BABIP, not his bat — Kuroda-Grauer's .392 wOBA wOBA .392 vs xwOBA .311 — +.081 mirage	Sell High
3	Alika Williams vs	ATH	Soft contact padding the line — Williams' xwOBA just .248. wOBA .319 vs xwOBA .248 — +.071 mirage	Sell High
4	Nick Allen vs	HOU	Contact luck propping up a 26.9% hard-hit bat — Allen's real xwOBA .246. wOBA .316 vs xwOBA .246 — +.070 mirage	Sell High
5	Eduardo Valencia vs	DET	BABIP propping up his line — Valencia's .433 wOBA hides .372 xwOBA. wOBA .433 vs xwOBA .372 — +.061 mirage	Sell High
6	Jonny DeLuca vs	TB	Contact too soft to hold — DeLuca's .261 xwOBA wOBA .317 vs xwOBA .261 — +.056 mirage	Sell High
7	Brett Bateman vs	TOR	BABIP .410 carrying a soft 84.7 exit velo — Bateman at .312 xwOBA. wOBA .368 vs xwOBA .312 — +.056 mirage	Sell High

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PretendersPitchers

Hot surface numbers the skill won't sustain — sell high before the regression.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Yerry De los Santos vs	NYY	Luck propping up a thin strikeout profile — De los Santos 2.04 ERA vs 4.79 xERA. ERA 2.04 vs xERA 4.79 — 2.75 run gap	Sell High
2	Robert Suarez vs	ATL	His 1.06 ERA is a .240 BABIP illusion — Suarez. ERA 1.06 vs xERA 3.35 — 2.29 run gap	Sell High
3	Paul Blackburn vs	NYY	Winning on a .230 BABIP, not stuff — Blackburn's 3.68 xERA ERA 1.59 vs xERA 3.68 — 2.09 run gap	Sell High
4	Gordon Graceffo vs	STL	Luck propping up a 2.67 — Graceffo's real ERA is 4.60. ERA 2.67 vs xERA 4.60 — 1.93 run gap	Sell High
5	George Klassen vs	LAA	Luck shaving nearly two runs off — Klassen's real ERA 5.58. ERA 3.67 vs xERA 5.58 — 1.91 run gap	Sell High
6	Ray Kerr vs	ATL	Luck merchant on a .146 BABIP — Kerr's real ERA is 3.30. ERA 1.47 vs xERA 3.30 — 1.83 run gap	Sell High
7	Carson Seymour vs	SF	Luck masking a 6.23 xERA — Seymour's 4.55 is smoke. ERA 4.55 vs xERA 6.23 — 1.68 run gap	Sell High
8	Bryan Baker vs	TB	BABIP-against .204 can't hide the gap — Baker's xERA 3.08. ERA 1.44 vs xERA 3.08 — 1.64 run gap	Sell High
9	Shane Bieber vs	TOR	Luckier than his stuff allows — Bieber's 5.99 xERA says regression. ERA 4.37 vs xERA 5.99 — 1.62 run gap	Sell High
10	Grant Holmes vs	ATL	Strikeouts too scarce to hold this — Holmes at 5.05 xERA. ERA 3.44 vs xERA 5.05 — 1.61 run gap	Sell High

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LosersBatters

Skill below league and stable — cold streaks that are real, not bad luck.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Christian Vázquez vs	HOU	Contact too soft to survive — Vázquez at .233 xwOBA. xwOBA .233 stable · -.082 vs league	Sell
2	Christian Koss vs	SF	Contact too soft to survive — Koss at .235 xwOBA. xwOBA .235 stable · -.080 vs league	Sell
3	Tyler Heineman vs	LAA	Contact too soft to survive — Heineman at .236 xwOBA. xwOBA .236 stable · -.079 vs league	Sell
4	Noelvi Marte vs	CIN	Well short of league contact — Marte at .237 xwOBA. xwOBA .237 stable · -.078 vs league	Sell

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LosersPitchers

Skill below league and stable — cold streaks that are real, not bad luck.

#	Player	Team	Headline	Call
1	Zac Gallen vs	AZ	Strikeouts dried up to 13.6% — Gallen's xERA sits at 6.64. xERA 6.64 stable · +2.54 vs league	Sell
2	Nick Lodolo vs	CIN	Luck flattering a broken profile — Lodolo's 6.47 xERA xERA 6.47 stable · +2.37 vs league	Sell
3	Merrill Kelly vs	AZ	Lucky to sit at 4.94 — Kelly's 6.35 xERA says worse xERA 6.35 stable · +2.25 vs league	Sell
4	Tomoyuki Sugano vs	COL	Hitters teeing off on 14.6% K-rate — Sugano at 6.35 xERA. xERA 6.35 stable · +2.25 vs league	Sell
5	Brady Singer vs	CIN	Strikeout stuff is gone — Singer at 5.99 xERA xERA 5.99 stable · +1.89 vs league	Sell
6	Jameson Taillon vs	TOR	Contact quality says the slide is earned — Taillon 5.96 xERA. xERA 5.96 stable · +1.86 vs league	Sell
7	Kyle Finnegan vs	DET	Luck hiding a 5.77 xERA — Finnegan's ERA is fiction. xERA 5.77 stable · +1.67 vs league	Sell
8	Joel Kuhnel vs	SF	Strikeouts dried up to 13.9% — Kuhnel's 5.77 xERA is real xERA 5.77 stable · +1.67 vs league	Sell
9	Grayson Rodriguez vs	LAA	Strikes nobody out, walks too many — Rodriguez 5.69 xERA. xERA 5.69 stable · +1.59 vs league	Sell
10	Noah Schultz vs	CWS	Nothing fluky here — Schultz's 5.62 xERA earned. xERA 5.62 stable · +1.52 vs league	Sell

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