MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dustin May
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Dustin May

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.29 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.72
ROSK 11ERA 4.22WHIP 1.36W 0–1SV 0

May is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm.

His ERA is 4.69, and the number inflating it is his BABIP-against: .324, 29 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 379, so that gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.29, right around league, with a .319 expected wOBA allowed that nearly matches the .315 league mark. The arm itself is fine: his fastball is sitting 96.9 mph, well above the 94.0 league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His strikeout and walk rates are both league average, his barrel rate allowed is actually below league, and his xERA has been climbing toward the number his stuff supports. The surface is worse than the pitcher. Buy low. Buy-low arm, but at 11 K / 4.22 ERA / 1.36 WHIP he's a drop-tier stash — deep-league only, not a roster-anywhere add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.6%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~21.6% career norm
  • Walk %8.0%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~8.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.29 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
44.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
379 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
379 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
.319*
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
562 / 200 TBF
xERA4.29
4.29*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.19vs his norm —
562 / 200 TBF
ERA4.69
4.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
132.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.6%
norm22.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
562 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
norm8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
562 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.324
.324*
lg avg .295 ▲+.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
379 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
562 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
562 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
2151 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.6%→22.3%signal11 K — K% 22.6% (signal) tempered to career ~21.6% → projected 22.3% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 4.29signal4.22 ERA — xERA 4.29 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 61 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.309 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.22 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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