Dustin May
May is a sell — his expected ERA says he's below league.
His expected ERA is 4.45, a third of a run above league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. There is no luck story underneath it: he strikes out 23.2% of batters and walks 8.1%, both right at league, so the run prevention is not being hidden by sequencing or an outlier walk rate. Batters are squaring him up, with a 44.3% hard-hit rate allowed against a 40% league mark, while his whiff rate sits exactly at league (10.9%). The xERA has stepped up across the sample rather than settled down — this is the direction his season is traveling, not a blip. The strikeouts and velocity say there is a real arm here, but the contact he allows keeps him from converting it. Sell. Sell into a 0 K / 4.33 ERA / 1.35 WHIP line — waiver-wire fodder, not a hold.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.2%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~21.6% career norm
- Walk %8.1%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~8.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.45 +0.35 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.