MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dustin May
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Dustin May

STL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.74 sits 0.36 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.84
ROSK 47ERA 3.74WHIP 1.31W 2–4SV 0

May is a buy-low — the ERA is a BABIP lie.

His ERA is 4.55, but the arm behind it is better than that number suggests. His expected ERA is 3.74, which is 0.36 below league average, and that figure is stable after 389 batters faced. The gap comes from his BABIP-against, which sits at .319 — 24 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 265. That gap is luck, not a skill problem. And his fastball velocity has ticked up across the sample, now averaging 96.9 mph — nearly three ticks above league. His strikeout and walk rates are league-average or better, and his xwOBA allowed is .301, 14 points below league. The stuff is real; the box score is lying. Buy low. 47 K with a 3.74 ERA in a deep league — buy the dip on the skill, not the surface.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.9%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~21.6% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~8.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.74 sits 0.36 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.0%
46.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
265 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
265 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
389 / 200 TBF
xERA3.74
3.74*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.36vs his norm —
389 / 200 TBF
ERA4.55
4.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
norm22.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
389 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
389 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.319
.319*
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
265 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
389 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.3%
30.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
389 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
1494 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→22.5%signal47 K — K% 22.9% (signal) tempered to career ~21.6% → projected 22.5% over ~57 remaining…
xERA 3.74signal3.74 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.74 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep47 K ROS, 3.74 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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