Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategoryDustin
79K ←76
3.79ERA →3.66
1.33WHIP →1.31
4–9W ←3–6
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategoryDustin
45K →51
2.39ERA ←4.57
1.10WHIP ←1.30
4W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.79 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
Dustin May
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.66)
Clay Holmes: 79 K / 3.79 ERA. Dustin May: 76 K / 3.66 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).