Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryClay
76K →79
3.74ERA ←3.79
1.27WHIP ←1.33
2–5W →4–9
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryClay
49K ←45
2.27ERA ←2.39
0.97WHIP ←1.10
2W →4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.66 is 0.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.79 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
Casey Mize: 76 K / 3.74 ERA. Clay Holmes: 79 K / 3.79 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).