Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryConnelly
79K →93
3.73ERA ←4.39
1.27WHIP ←1.32
2–5W →5–11
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryConnelly
49K →57
2.27ERA ←2.95
0.97WHIP ←1.16
2W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.55 is 1.25 above the ERA — regression coming
Casey Mize: 80 K / 3.73 ERA vs Connelly Early: 94 K / 4.39 ERA. Early leads K by 14; Mize leads ERA by 0.66. Two sell-high calls; the surface stats diverge on category value.