Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryFreddy
105K →122
4.44ERA →3.68
1.30WHIP ←1.34
6–12W ←3–7
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryFreddy
57K →68
2.95ERA ←3.55
1.16WHIP ←1.30
5W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
Freddy Peralta
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.68, 0.42 below league — production is earned
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. Freddy Peralta: 122 K / 3.68 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).