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Who to buy, who to sell — the signal under the surface stats.
Today
Jack Perkins' ERA is a lie — buy the real arm beneath
Jack Perkins' 6.87 ERA screams bust, but a luck-free 4.22 xERA says otherwise. The .329 BABIP against is still noise, while a 96 mph fastball (above league average) has already cleared signal. That's a rosterable skill the market is ignoring — buy the dip.
Power Rankings
Top 10 Bats (xwOBA)
| # | Player | Team | xwOBA | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | .474 | Buy |
| 2 | James Wood | WSH | .437 | Buy |
| 3 | Juan Soto | NYM | .432 | Buy |
| 4 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | .416 | Buy |
| 5 | Mike Trout | LAA | .409 | Buy Low |
| 6 | Miguel Vargas | CWS | .401 | Buy Low |
| 7 | Bryce Harper | PHI | .391 | Buy |
| 8 | Willson Contreras | BOS | .390 | Buy |
| 9 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | .389 | Buy |
| 10 | Alec Burleson | STL | .383 | Buy |
Top 10 Arms (xERA)
| # | Player | Team | xERA | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | 2.05 | Sell High |
| 2 | Bryce Miller | SEA | 2.27 | Buy |
| 3 | Adrian Morejon | SD | 2.49 | Buy |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 2.63 | Sell High |
| 5 | Paul Skenes | PIT | 2.71 | Buy |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | TOR | 2.84 | Buy |
| 7 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 2.96 | Buy Low |
| 8 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | 2.98 | Sell High |
| 9 | Payton Tolle | BOS | 3.00 | Buy |
| 10 | Casey Mize | DET | 3.07 | Buy |
Boards
LeadersBatters
- 1Freddie FreemanLADElite contact still producing — Freeman at .383 xwOBA.
- 2Bryce HarperPHIContact quality still elite — Harper at .391 xwOBA.
- 3Gary SánchezMILExpected production unwavering — Sánchez at .374 xwOBA.
- 4Brandon NimmoTEXContact quality far ahead of results — Nimmo at .379 xwOBA.
- 5Pete AlonsoBALElite contact quality earning its keep — Alonso, .376 xwOBA.
LeadersPitchers
- 1Gerrit ColeNYYSkill outperforming ERA by more than half a run — Cole, 3.48 xERA.
- 2Jacob deGromTEXStill elite, zero luck — deGrom's 30.4% K-rate.
- 3Drew AndersonDETUnderlying skills a full run better than ERA — Anderson, 3.21 xERA.
- 4Sandy AlcantaraMIASmoke without fire — Alcantara at 3.74 xERA.
- 5Lake BacharMIAElite contact management backed by steady skills — Bachar, 3.19 xERA.
Buy-LowBatters
- 1Edmundo SosaPHIStable .340 xwOBA, .272 wOBA — buy the 68-point gap.
- 2Austin WellsNYY56 points of hard-hit production underpaid — Wells at .285 xwOBA.
Buy-LowPitchers
- 1Jack PerkinsATHDeceptive 2.65-run ERA gap — Perkins, 4.22 xERA.
- 2Aaron NolaPHIUnderlying K-BB strong, but ERA bloated by .322 BABIP — Nola, 1.52-run xERA gap.
- 3Tyler MahleSFOver a run of bad luck baked into that ERA — Mahle at 4.19 xERA.
- 4Dustin MaySTLERA lying by 0.81 runs — May at 3.74 xERA.
- 5José SuarezATHSkill buried by .372 BABIP — Suarez at 3.56 xERA.
PretendersBatters
- 1Alika WilliamsATHNothing but empty contact — Williams, .223 xwOBA.
- 2Tyler TolbertKCHiding a .312 xwOBA under a .394 wOBA — 82-point BABIP gap.
- 3Esmerlyn ValdezPIT76-point wOBA bubble inflated by .404 BABIP — Valdez.
- 4Luis CampusanoSDLiving off a .370 BABIP illusion — Campusano at .344 xwOBA.
- 5Donovan WaltonATH60-point wOBA illusion — Walton at .372, scouted .312 xwOBA.
PretendersPitchers
- 1Gordon GraceffoSTLBuried by a .183 BABIP — Graceffo's real ERA is 5.73.
- 2Eduardo RodriguezAZNight-and-day gap between ERA and skill — Rodriguez, 5.06 xERA.
- 3PJ PoulinWSHBABIP sheltering a 2.64-run gap — Poulin, 5.34 xERA.
- 4Trent ThorntonCHCHiding behind a .185 BABIP mask — Thornton's 4.99 xERA.
- 5Michael McGreevySTLA 2.33-run ERA/xERA gap says it's not real — McGreevy, 5.34 xERA.
LosersBatters
- 1Christian VázquezHOUNo damage even with the bat on ball — Vázquez, .242 xwOBA.
- 2TJ FriedlCINNo impact whatsoever — Friedl at .242 xwOBA.
LosersPitchers
- 1Merrill KellyAZWhiff rate cratered 8 points below league — Kelly's 14.4% K-rate.
- 2Brayan BelloBOSNo swing-and-miss, no luck excuse — Bello 6.08 xERA.
- 3Colin ReaCHCStrikeouts too scarce to survive — Rea at 16.8% K-rate, xERA 5.70.
- 4Michael LorenzenCOLNo swing-and-miss, no escape — Lorenzen at 15.8% K-rate.
- 5Brady SingerCINTrue talent a full run worse than the ERA — Singer, 5.51 xERA.