week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Casey Mize
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 79WHIP 1.27ERA 3.73W 2–5SV 0
Mize is a sell-high — his ERA is lucky, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.5%—+6.3% ▲vs his ~20.2% career norm
- Walk %6.5%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~6.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
123 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
123 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.258
lg avg .315 ▼−.057vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
185 / 200 TBF
xERA2.64
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.46vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
185 / 200 TBF
ERA2.27
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.83vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
47.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +6.3% ▲
185 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
185 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.264
lg avg .295 ▼−.031vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→23.2%signal79 K — K% 26.5% (signal) tempered to career ~20.2% → projected 23.2% over ~87 remaining…
xERA 2.64noise3.73 ERA — xERA 2.64 (noise) blended 25% skill / 75% league 4.10 at 48 IP.
BB% 6.5% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP, blended 25…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep79 K ROS, 3.73 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.