MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
Engraved portrait of Casey Mize
week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekBUY

Casey Mize

DET·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from BUY on July 28, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.07 is 0.37 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.80
ROSK 43ERA 3.07WHIP 1.16W 1–3SV 0

Mize is a sell-high — ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.70, but the number driving it is not reliable. His BABIP-against is .271, 24 points below league average, with only 236 balls in play — a luck stat that needs 800 to stabilize. His expected ERA is 3.07, 37 points higher, and his suppressed BABIP-against is the reason the ERA is lower. The skill metrics are real: xwOBA allowed is .273, well below the league average of .315, strikeouts at 24.9%, walks at 5.6%, and a 13.4% swinging-strike rate are all above league. But the ERA is better than the skill, and the gap is all BABIP luck. That luck is coming back. Sell high. A 43 K / 3.07 ERA / 1.16 WHIP line limits his upside; sell now while the 1-3 W / 0 SV profile still has trade value.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.9%—+4.7% ▲vs his ~20.2% career norm
  • Walk %5.6%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~6.5% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.07 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
236 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
236 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.273
.273*
lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
xERA3.07
3.07*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.03vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
2.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
86.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.9%
norm24.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm +4.7% ▲
341 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
norm5.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
341 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
.271*
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
236 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
13.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
1318 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.9%→23.1%signal43 K — K% 24.9% (signal) tempered to career ~20.2% → projected 23.1% over ~45 remaining…
xERA 3.07signal3.07 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.07 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.6% + contactsignal1.16 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard43 K ROS, 3.07 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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