MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Casey Mize
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Casey Mize

SD·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from BUY
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.86); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.86WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0

Mize is a hold — league average on both ends, nothing unstable.

His expected ERA is 3.86, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .303, just below the .315 league mark, and his actual results track right with it — no suppressed BABIP-against is holding the line up, and none is inflating it either. The contact quality he allows is ordinary: a 39.4% hard-hit rate and 8.3% barrel rate, both within a rounding error of league. He strikes out 20.0% of batters, slightly under the 22.0% average, but he walks only 6.9%, so the strike-zone profile roughly cancels out. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is the one mild positive. There is no edge to press here in either direction. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.9%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~6.5% career norm
  • Strikeout %20.0%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~20.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.86)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.4%
39.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
398 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
398 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
.303*
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
549 / 200 TBF
xERA3.86
3.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —
549 / 200 TBF
ERA4.32
4.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.22vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
131.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
norm20.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
549 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
549 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.279
.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
398 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
549 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
549 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
93.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
2083 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→20.0%signal0 K — K% 20.0% (signal) held to career ~20.2% → projected 20.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.86signal3.86 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.86 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.86 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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