Position: P
Grouped Buy → Sell · ranked by confidence within each group
Buy13
- 1
xERA 2.28; 29.4% K and 4.7% BB are elite.
Buyconf 0.92 - 2
27% K rate, 5.7% BB rate, xERA 2.76 — ace skill.
Buyconf 0.92 - 3
xERA 2.91, ERA 4.63 — 1.72 runs of bad luck.
Buyconf 0.92 - 4
29.6% K, 6.8% BB — ace-level command with a 3.09 xERA.
Buyconf 0.90 - 5
27% strikeouts with a 3.23 xERA — legit ground.
Buyconf 0.86 - 6
xERA 3.3 backed by elite 5.1% walk rate.
Buyconf 0.84 - 7
2.9% walk rate, 25.8 K% — the control is elite.
Buyconf 0.83 - 8
27.9% K rate, xERA 3.35 — skills hiding behind 4.21 ERA.
Buyconf 0.82 - 9
Walk rate 4.3% — elite control outstrips ERA.
Buyconf 0.79 - 10
xERA 3.6 with a 24% K rate: solid command-driven arm.
Buyconf 0.75 - 11
xERA 3.63 backs surface; walks 6.7%.
Buyconf 0.74 - 12
xERA 3.68, K% near league, but walks suppress ceiling.
Buyconf 0.73 - 13
xERA 3.7 with a 25.9% K rate and 5.9% walk rate.
Buyconf 0.72
Buy-Low21
- 1
0.45 BABIP against — that crater is noise, not talent.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 2
2.32-run gap between ERA and xERA.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 3
xERA 2.01 vs ERA 4.09 — 31.6% Ks + .377 BABIP.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 4
27.8% K rate with a .357 BABIP; buy the rebound.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 5
36.6% K-rate with .516 BABIP — buy the noise.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 6
BABIP .337 masks a 4.71 xERA — buy the rebound.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 7
BABIP .036, xERA 3.16 — buy the gap.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 8
BABIP .464 hides a 3.45 xERA; buy the bounce.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 9
BABIP .451; xERA 3.73 — regression candidate.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 10Buy Lowconf 0.90
- 11
ERA 2.22 runs above xERA — biggest gap in sample.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 12
xERA 4.77, ERA 6.9 — 2+ run gap deserves buy.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 13
37% BABIP against fuels 2-run ERA-xERA gap.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 14Buy Lowconf 0.90
- 15
xERA 4.11 vs ERA 5.4 — due for correction.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 16
BABIP .343 cratering a 4.08 xERA.
Buy Lowconf 0.90 - 17
xERA 3.28 vs ERA 4.22 — 26.6% K rate backs it.
Buy Lowconf 0.88 - 18
xERA 4.62, BABIP .361 — due for correction.
Buy Lowconf 0.85 - 19
BABIP .347 inflates ERA; xERA 3.33 tells truth.
Buy Lowconf 0.85 - 20
BABIP .332 inflates ERA; xERA 4.62 tells truer story.
Buy Lowconf 0.79 - 21
.335 BABIP with a 14.7% K-rate – batted-ball luck.
Buy Lowconf 0.72
Sell-High81
- 1
2.88 ERA vs 4.43 xERA — 1.55-run gap screams regression.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 2
3.18 ERA vs 3.97 xERA — 0.79-run gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 3
13.8% K rate craters value; xERA 2.67 says sell.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 4
13.3% K-rate with a 4.56 xERA — luck won't last.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 5Sell Highconf 0.95
- 6
2.80 ERA but 4.14 xERA — 1.34-run gap is all luck.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 7
BABIP .267 hides xERA 4.71; 17.7% K-rate.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 8Sell Highconf 0.95
- 9
ERA 3.04 but xERA 4.65 — 1.6-run gap is all BABIP.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 10
5.37 xERA with 12% Ks — luck can't fix that.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 11
ERA 2.70, xERA 4.43 — 1.73-run gap screams regression.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 12
2.68-run gap between ERA and xERA — extreme luck.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 13
ERA 2.46, xERA 3.57 — 1.11-run gap in luck.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 14
ERA 2.53, xERA 4.62 — a two-run luck gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 15
.200 BABIP against; 1.75 ERA but 3.28 xERA.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 16
xERA 4.62 but ERA 3.54; 10.4% walk rate.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 17
ERA 2.48 hides a 3.50 xERA — BABIP luck.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 18
4.08 ERA but 5.31 xERA masks 1.2-run gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 19
xERA 3.47, ERA 2.33 — the 1.14-run gap spells regression.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 20
2.02 ERA vs 3.18 xERA — nearly a run of luck.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 21
ERA 2.79 despite xERA 4.31 — 1.5-run gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 22
ERA 0.71 but xERA 2.78 — massive unsupported gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 23
3.31 ERA, 4.77 xERA — a run and a half of luck.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 24
.196 BABIP against hides a 5.1 xERA.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 25Sell Highconf 0.95
- 26
ERA 1.63 vs xERA 3.57 — a 1.94-run gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 27
xERA 2.55 hides a 0.256 BABIP — regression due.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 28
ERA 2.54 vs xERA 3.73; strikeout rate below 19%.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 29Sell Highconf 0.95
- 30
xERA 4.06, ERA 2.72 — 1.34-run luck gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 31
2.28-run ERA-xERA gap; 17.6% K rate can't sustain.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 32
15% K-rate with a 1-run ERA/xERA gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 33
K rate 12.9%, BABIP .176 — regression magnet.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 34
xERA 5 with 11.6% K rate and .190 BABIP against.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 35
BABIP 0.115 and xERA 2.24 — living on the edge.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 36
ERA 2.75 despite 3.89 xERA; BABIP .226 won't hold.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 37
ERA 0.48, xERA 2.93 — 2.45-run gap of luck.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 38
xERA 4.65 suggests 1.7-run regression awaits.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 39Sell Highconf 0.95
- 40
xERA 4.9 with 11.8% Ks — no skill behind the ERA.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 41
3.62 ERA vs 4.71 xERA — due for a 1-run climb.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 42
xERA 2.89 but .230 BABIP against — regression gap.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 43
ERA 5.21 hides a 6.6 xERA; 0.25 BABIP masks it.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 44
1.30 ERA hides 0.209 BABIP and 3.16 xERA.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 45
xERA 7.71 despite 4.01 ERA; 12.8% K-rate is untenable.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 46
K% 25.7 saves a 3.57 xERA from the BABIP hole.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 47
xERA 4.68 vs 1.34 ERA — 3.3-run mirage.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 48
2.74 ERA but 5.07 xERA with 13.7% K rate.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 49
16% K-rate, .237 BABIP — regression waiting.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 50
2.86 ERA but 3.65 xERA — due for 0.8-run correction.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 51
xERA 6.07 versus 5.01 ERA; 13.5% K-rate can't stick.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 52
xERA 8.66 with 13.2% K rate — no luck involved.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 53
1.33 ERA hides 3.81 xERA — BABIP-driven mirage.
Sell Highconf 0.95 - 54
5.17 xERA with a lucky .268 BABIP behind him.
Sell Highconf 0.94 - 55
BABIP .253 hiding a 3.95 xERA — luck, not skill.
Sell Highconf 0.94 - 56
BABIP .254 fueling a 2.50 ERA — not sustainable.
Sell Highconf 0.92 - 57
xERA 4.43, BABIP .247 — regression incoming.
Sell Highconf 0.92 - 58
ERA 2.27, xERA 3.18; .211 BABIP won't hold.
Sell Highconf 0.91 - 59
ERA 2.93 but xERA 4.0, .241 BABIP masks.
Sell Highconf 0.90 - 60Sell Highconf 0.90
- 61
.211 BABIP against — .084 points of luck.
Sell Highconf 0.89 - 62
xERA 3.30 — 2.44 ERA, 0.86-run luck gap.
Sell Highconf 0.89 - 63
39.6% K rate but .243 BABIP; xERA 2.19 is the floor.
Sell Highconf 0.87 - 64Sell Highconf 0.85
- 65Sell Highconf 0.84
- 66
BABIP .200 — regression bathes the 2.14 ERA.
Sell Highconf 0.83 - 67
xERA 2.84, but .196 BABIP won't last.
Sell Highconf 0.81 - 68
xERA 4.31, but lucky .258 BABIP hides it.
Sell Highconf 0.79 - 69
14.8% K rate with xERA 60 points above ERA.
Sell Highconf 0.79 - 70
BABIP .241, xERA 2.8 — surface flatters.
Sell Highconf 0.78 - 71
BABIP-against .136, due for regression.
Sell Highconf 0.77 - 72Sell Highconf 0.76
- 73
.217 BABIP against carries shaky 20% K-rate.
Sell Highconf 0.74 - 74
1.86 ERA but 20.9% K rate; loud regression incoming.
Sell Highconf 0.74 - 75
BABIP .153 — unsustainable near-zero hits on balls in play.
Sell Highconf 0.73 - 76
BABIP-against .138 is begging for regression.
Sell Highconf 0.72 - 77
28.7% K rate but xERA 3.18 exceeds ERA.
Sell Highconf 0.71 - 78
BABIP-against .221 — 74 points of luck.
Sell Highconf 0.71 - 79Sell Highconf 0.70
- 80
BABIP .25 masks a 5.03 xERA and 19% Ks.
Sell Highconf 0.69 - 81
ERA 3.57 vs xERA 3.92 — 0.35-run gap to regression.
Sell Highconf 0.69
Sell33
- 1
xERA 6.23 despite 3.28 ERA — sell the mirage.
Sellconf 0.90 - 2
13.6% K rate — literally last among qualified pitchers.
Sellconf 0.90 - 3
xERA 6.23, xwOBA .383 — nothing to see here.
Sellconf 0.90 - 4
3.65 ERA hides 5.27 xERA, 17.1% K-rate.
Sellconf 0.90 - 5
xERA 5.66, K% 16.3 — no way to sustain the 3.77 ERA.
Sellconf 0.90 - 6
xERA 7.29 with 14% strikeout rate — unplayable.
Sellconf 0.90 - 7
5.96 xERA and a 15.6% K-rate — no escape.
Sellconf 0.90 - 8
xERA 5.27 and a .235 BABIP flattering him.
Sellconf 0.90 - 9
xERA 6.47, K% 15.1 — no swing-and-miss at all.
Sellconf 0.90 - 10
xERA 6.35; the contact is destruction, not luck.
Sellconf 0.90 - 11
15.4% K-rate and xERA 5.88 — no skill here.
Sellconf 0.90 - 12
xERA 5.20 with a .339 BABIP mask.
Sellconf 0.88 - 13
5.2 xERA, 16% K rate — command can't save him.
Sellconf 0.88 - 14
5.17 xERA with 16% K rate and 12% walks.
Sellconf 0.87 - 15Sellconf 0.86
- 16
12.4% walk rate drives a 5.10 xERA.
Sellconf 0.85 - 17
xERA 5.07 — 86th percentile in batted-ball damage.
Sellconf 0.84 - 18
14.5% K rate with a 5.07 xERA — no escape.
Sellconf 0.84 - 19
xERA 5.03 with a .233 BABIP — regression incoming.
Sellconf 0.83 - 20
xERA 4.97 yet 4.02 ERA; 15.5% K rate sinks him.
Sellconf 0.81 - 21Sellconf 0.81
- 22
xERA 4.77, xwOBA .342 — both well above league.
Sellconf 0.75 - 23
ERA 3.76 hides xERA 4.74 and .331 BABIP.
Sellconf 0.74 - 24
xERA 4.71, K% 19.5 — velocity and whiff decline.
Sellconf 0.73 - 25
12% walk rate sinks a high-strikeout arm.
Sellconf 0.72 - 26
15% walk rate sinks an otherwise league-average arm.
Sellconf 0.71 - 27
14.4% K-rate, no skill to prop up the ERA.
Sellconf 0.70 - 28
4.59 xERA matches ERA; no luck to blame.
Sellconf 0.70 - 29
xERA 4.52 — no hidden value from surface ERA.
Sellconf 0.68 - 30
Walks 9.8% and xERA can't escape 4.46.
Sellconf 0.66 - 31
xERA 4.46, and the 5.72 ERA masks real decline.
Sellconf 0.66 - 32Sellconf 0.66
- 33
xERA 4.4 with league-worst 0.331 BABIP.
Sellconf 0.64
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