MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Robert Gasser

MIL·P
data as of July 19, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.82); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 34ERA 3.82WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0

Gasser is a hold — league average, stable, nothing to exploit.

His xERA sits at 3.82, just below the league average of 4.10, and the sample of 201 batters faced is past the stabilization point, so the number is reliable. Across the board, his skill metrics cluster tightly around league average: strikeout rate 21.4% against 22.0%, walk rate 7.0% against 8.0%, and xwOBA allowed .304 against .315. Contact suppression is solid — hard-hit rate of 30.2% is well below the league average of 40.0%, and barrel rate checks in at 7.2% versus 8.0% — but nothing is elite. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is encouraging, but the total profile still says: roughly average with no luck stat inflating or depressing the surface. There is no edge in either direction. Hold. With 34 K, 3.82 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP, that's a deep-league hold — no edge to cut or chase.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.4%—+5.3% ▲vs his ~16.1% career norm
  • Walk %7.0%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm —
139 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
.304*
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
xERA3.82
3.82*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
ERA5.25
5.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.15vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
46.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
norm21.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm +5.3% ▲
201 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
201 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
139 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.8%
28.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
781 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→18.8%signal34 K — K% 21.4% (signal) tempered to career ~16.1% → projected 18.8% over ~43 remaining…
xERA 3.82signal3.82 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.82 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep34 K ROS, 3.82 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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