MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Robert Gasser

MIL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.27 is 0.40 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81
ROSK 0ERA 4.21WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0

Gasser is a sell-high — his ERA is riding suppressed BABIP

His BABIP-against is .268, 27 points under the league average of .295, and that gap is the whole reason his ERA reads 3.87. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to become reliable, and he has 315 — luck still drives this stat at his sample. The luck-free expected ERA is 4.27, .40 above the number on the scoreboard, and it has been stepping up across the sample. Nothing underneath points to a run-prevention leap: his xwOBA allowed of .317 sits right on the .315 league mark, his strikeout rate of 22.3% and walk rate of 7.4% are league-average, and his fastball averages 92.9 mph against a 94.0 league average. This is an average pitcher wearing a good ERA. Sell high. The 0 K / 4.21 ERA / 1.26 WHIP ROS line confirms the sell — a drop-tier arm, streaming-only, with the trade window shut.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.3%—+6.2% ▲vs his ~16.1% career norm
  • Walk %7.4%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.27 is 0.40 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
315 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
315 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
462 / 200 TBF
xERA4.27
4.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.17vs his norm —
462 / 200 TBF
ERA3.87
3.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.23vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
109.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
norm22.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +6.2% ▲
462 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
462 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
315 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
462 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
462 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
1817 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→20.4%signal0 K — K% 22.3% (signal) tempered to career ~16.1% → projected 20.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.27signal4.21 ERA — xERA 4.27 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 13 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.21 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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