MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026

Today's Moves

every verdict flip since yesterday · Jul 28 · 336 total

Upgrades129

Downgrades144

Lateral Moves63

The Loudest Cut

The most actionable names from today's movement — the risers with signal behind them, the fallers worth watching, and the sell-window opportunities where surface stats are outrunning true talent.

Risers

  • Johnson is a buy-low — ERA noise, skill is real.
    Buy Low
  • Ahlstrom is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
    Buy Low
  • Rasmussen is a buy — elite command and contact suppression.
    Buy
  • Sale is a buy — elite skill with no luck story needed.
    Buy
  • Sánchez is a buy — elite stuff, no luck, earned production.
    Buy

Fallers

  • Bieber is a sell-high — ERA is propped up by BABIP luck.
    Sell High
  • Martinez is a sell-high — BABIP-driven ERA masks the truth.
    Sell High
  • Bibee is a sell-high — ERA is flattered by BABIP luck.
    Sell High
  • Misiorowski is a sell-high — BABIP luck inflates elite stuff.
    Sell High
  • Mize is a sell-high — ERA is built on BABIP luck.
    Sell High

Sell Windows

Players whose surface stats are outrunning their underlying skill — the gap is unstable noise, not earned signal.

  • A .069 wOBA-xwOBA gap signals luck-driven surface.
    Hold
  • A .328 BABIP masks a .045 wOBA-xwOBA gap.
    Hold
  • xwOBA (.307) trailing wOBA (.334) by 27 points.
    Hold
  • A .324 BABIP is too high; the .353 wOBA will fade.
    Hold
  • A .325 BABIP masks xwOBA 21 pts below wOBA.
    Hold