week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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George Soriano
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Soriano is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 3.04, but the foundation is flimsy. BABIP-against is .219, 76 points below the league average of .295, and that gap is pure noise — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has 67. Strip that luck away and his expected ERA is 4.65, a 1.61-run jump that points directly at regression. Limited data: this call rests on a small sample, but the mechanism is clear. His strikeout rate and contact-suppression metrics are near or below league average, so there is no elite skill to catch the floor when the BABIP normalizes. The surface ERA is selling a story the underlying numbers cannot support. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.219 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.65 is 1.61 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL67 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
lg avg .315 ▲+.023too early to trust
NOISE98 / 200 TBF
xERA4.65
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.55too early to trust
NOISE98 / 200 TBF
ERA3.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.06too early to trust
NOISE23.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL98 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%too early to trust
NOISE98 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.219
lg avg .295 ▼−.076too early to trust
NOISE67 / 800 BIP