week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
George Soriano
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.99 is 0.67 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 18ERA 3.71WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 1–3
Soriano is a sell-high — BABIP luck pumping his ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.0%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~21.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.99 is 0.67 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
115 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
115 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
xERA3.99
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.11vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
ERA3.32
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.78vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
167 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.3% norm — expect it to rise.
167 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.225
lg avg .295 ▼−.070vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
633 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.0%→21.4%signal18 K — K% 21.0% (signal) lifted to career ~21.8% → projected 21.4% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 3.99noise3.71 ERA — xERA 3.99 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 3…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.