week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Andrew Alvarez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.30); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 35ERA 4.09WHIP 1.36W 1–3SV 1–4
Alvarez is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 35 ROS, ERA 4.02 YTD → 4.09 ROS, WHIP 1.28 YTD → 1.36 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.0%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~23.3% career norm
- Walk %10.4%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
135 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
212 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
212 / 200 TBF
ERA4.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
212 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
212 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.353
lg avg .295 ▲+.058vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
135 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
212 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
212 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
855 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→24.2%signal35 K — K% 25.0% (signal) tempered to career ~23.3% → projected 24.2% over ~34 remaining…
xERA 4.30signal4.09 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-4 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.