Is Andrew Alvarez a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Hold — mixed signals; no compelling reason to add or drop right now.

What is Andrew Alvarez's rest-of-season outlook?

Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.

week 25

this weekHOLD

last weekNO CALL

Andrew Alvarez

WSH·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

new call as of September 10, 2026

Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.35); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60

ROSK 9ERA 4.12WHIP 1.38W 0–1SV 0–1

Alvarez is a hold — league average, and the sample says so.

His expected ERA is 4.35, a hair above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .321, right around league, and his strikeout rate, swing-and-miss rate, and chase rate all sit within a point of average. There is one thing trending the wrong way: his xERA has stepped up across the sample, which keeps him from being a quiet buy. The walk rate is 10.7%, about three points above league, and that is the part of his game worth watching. Nothing here is unstable enough to sell and nothing is good enough to buy. Hold. 9 K with a 4.12 ERA and 1.38 WHIP is a drop-tier drag — hold only as a deep-league streamer, not a roster asset.

VS His Norm

Walk %10.7%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~8.9% career norm
Strikeout %22.7%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~23.3% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.35)

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —

264 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed5.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —

264 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.321

lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —

401 / 200 TBF

xERA4.35

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —

401 / 200 TBF

ERA3.60

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

95 / 200 IP

Strikeout %22.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −0.6% ▼

401 / 70 TBF

Walk %10.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +1.8% ▲

401 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.298

lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

264 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —

401 / 60 TBF

Chase %30.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —

401 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo92.3 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —

1567 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 22.7%→22.9%signal9 K — K% 22.7% (signal) held to career ~23.3% → projected 22.9% over ~8 remaining IP.

xERA 4.35signal4.12 ERA — xERA 4.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 16 IP.

BB% 10.7% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (middle)0-1 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.

rosterdrop4.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons