Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryHogan
54K ←45
3.70ERA →3.68
1.24WHIP ←1.27
2–5W2–4
1–6SV →4–8
Current Season
AndrewCategoryHogan
17K →31
4.02ERA →2.60
1.28WHIP ←1.59
1W →2
1SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Alvarez
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.78)
Hogan Harris
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.35 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
Andrew Alvarez: 54 K / 3.70 ERA. Hogan Harris: 45 K / 3.68 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).