week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Hogan Harris
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.41); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21WHIP 1.26ERA 3.68W 1–2SV 2–4
Harris is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 31 YTD → 21 ROS, WHIP 1.59 YTD → 1.26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.0%—+7.6% ▲vs his ~21.4% career norm
- Walk %14.0%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~11.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.41)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.9%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
193 / 200 TBF
xERA3.41
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.69vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
193 / 200 TBF
ERA3.43
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.67vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm +7.6% ▲
193 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
193 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.327
lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
193 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
193 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
811 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.0%→25.1%signal21 K — K% 29.0% (signal) tempered to career ~21.4% → projected 25.1% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 3.41noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.41 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 14.0% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 7…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep7 SV, 3.68 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.