MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Hogan Harris
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Hogan Harris

ATH·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.77
ROSK 5ERA 3.54WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0–1

Harris is a buy — the skill is stable and nothing fluky is holding it up

His expected ERA is 3.54, more than half a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The peripherals back it up: he strikes out 29.4% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, his xwOBA allowed is .292 well below the .315 league mark, and he is holding opposing hitters to a 33.1% hard-hit rate when the league sits at 40.0%. His fastball has been ticking up across the sample, now at 95.2 mph. The one flag is his walk rate — 13.8%, well above the 8.0% league average — which will cost him some outings. There is no luck stat propping this up, so the production is earned. Buy. 5 K and a 3.54 ERA make him a deep-league asset; add now before the strikeout rate gets priced in.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.4%—+8.0% ▲vs his ~21.4% career norm
  • Walk %13.8%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~11.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
154 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
believable since Jul 22.292*
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —
282 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
3.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —
282 / 200 TBF
ERA3.45
3.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.65vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.4%
norm29.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm +8.0% ▲
282 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.8%
norm13.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
282 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
.313*
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
282 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.8%
23.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
282 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
1203 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.4%→26.1%signal5 K — K% 29.4% (signal) tempered to career ~21.4% → projected 26.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.54signal3.54 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.54 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.8% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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