week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH
Hogan Harris
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.71 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.72WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0–0
Harris is a buy — the earned run prevention is real and getting better.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.3%—+6.9% ▲vs his ~21.4% career norm
- Walk %13.5%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~11.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.298
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —
311 / 200 TBF
xERA3.73
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —
311 / 200 TBF
ERA3.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.77vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
70.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm +6.9% ▲
311 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
311 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
311 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
311 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
1333 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→25.6%signal0 K — K% 28.3% (signal) tempered to career ~21.4% → projected 25.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.73signal3.72 ERA — xERA 3.73 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 13.5% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.72 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.