week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Didier Fuentes
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Fuentes is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP noise.
His ERA sits at 2.78, but the number propping it up is unreliable. His BABIP-against is .273, 22 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 56. That gap is luck, not a repeatable skill. His expected ERA is 3.18 — 0.40 higher — pointing to the regression ahead. He does suppress hard contact (33.9% hard-hit rate, well below league average of 40.0%) and strikes out 28.7% of batters (league: 22.0%), so there is real skill underneath. But the current ERA is flattered by batted-ball luck that will not last. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.71
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.18 is 0.40 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%too early to trust
NOISE56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031too early to trust
NOISE94 / 200 TBF
xERA3.18
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.92too early to trust
NOISE94 / 200 TBF
ERA2.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.32too early to trust
NOISE22.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL94 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%too early to trust
NOISE94 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022too early to trust
NOISE56 / 800 BIP