MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Didier Fuentes
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Didier Fuentes

ATL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.99, 1.11 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.99WHIP 1.14W 1–1SV 0

Fuentes is a buy — the skill is real and the sample proves it.

His expected ERA is 2.99, more than a run better than the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 264 batters faced is past the point where that number becomes reliable. He is not getting bailed out by luck: he strikes out 31.8% of batters against a league average of 22%, walks just 7.2%, and gets swings and misses on 15.9% of his pitches. His stuff backs it up — a 97.2 mph fastball that keeps climbing. Opposing hitters are managing only a .269 expected wOBA against him, and his barrel and hard-hit rates allowed are both below league. The expected ERA has stepped down across the season while the velocity has stepped up. This is a pitcher getting better, and the results show it. Buy. 6 K and a 2.99 ERA at this price is an asset — acquire before the window shuts.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %31.8%—+7.9% ▲vs his ~23.9% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.99, 1.11 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.8%
believable since May 2635.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.269
.269*
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —
264 / 200 TBF
xERA2.99
2.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.11vs his norm —
264 / 200 TBF
ERA2.34
2.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.76vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
65.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.8%
norm31.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.8%vs his norm +7.9% ▲
264 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
264 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.303
.303*
lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.9%
15.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
264 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
264 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
97.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
1083 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.8%→28.4%signal6 K — K% 31.8% (signal) tempered to career ~23.9% → projected 28.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.99signal2.99 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.99 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.14 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.99 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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