MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Didier Fuentes
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Didier Fuentes

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.89
ROSK 0ERA 3.15WHIP 1.16W 0–0SV 0

Fuentes is a buy — earned run prevention, no luck involved.

His expected ERA is 3.15, nearly a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing is propping it up: his BABIP-against is not doing the work, and his expected wOBA allowed of .275 sits well below the league's .315. The contact suppression backs it — 34.6% hard-hit allowed against a 40% league average, 6.6% barrels against 8%. He strikes out 31% of batters, far above league, with a 16% swinging-strike rate. The fastball is at 97.3 mph, three ticks above league, and both the velocity and the expected ERA have trended the right way across the sample. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. 0 K but a 3.15 ERA and 1.16 WHIP is the asset to acquire now — the ratios carry while strikeouts come.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %31.0%—+7.1% ▲vs his ~23.9% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.6%
believable since May 2634.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
182 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
182 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
297 / 200 TBF
xERA3.15
3.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —
297 / 200 TBF
ERA2.46
2.46*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.64vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.0%
norm31.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.0%vs his norm +7.1% ▲
297 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
297 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
.310*
lg avg .295 ▲+.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
182 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.0%
16.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
297 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.5%
31.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
297 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
1231 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.0%→28.2%signal0 K — K% 31.0% (signal) tempered to career ~23.9% → projected 28.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.15signal3.15 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.15 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.16 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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