MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryan Watson
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Ryan Watson

LAA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.73
ROSK 0ERA 4.34WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Watson is a sell — the contact allowed is worse than the run line

His xERA is 4.69, .59 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 307 batters — well past the 200 mark where that number becomes reliable. The contact allowed backs it: xwOBA allowed of .331 against a .315 league average, and a 9.7% barrel rate against 8.0%, both moving the wrong way with the sample to trust them. Nothing here is being propped up or dragged down by luck. His strikeout rate of 21.2% sits just below league, so he is not missing bats enough to limit the damage when balls are in play. The one favorable number is hard-hit rate allowed at 36.6%, but that does not rescue the rest. The stuff is ordinary and the results match it. Sell. With a 4.34 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in the ROS line, this is a drop — fringe waiver material, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.2%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~19.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
216 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
216 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
believable since Jul 2.331*
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
307 / 200 TBF
xERA4.69
4.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —
307 / 200 TBF
ERA4.00
4.00*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.10vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.2%
norm21.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
307 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
307 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
.291*
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
216 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
307 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
307 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
1138 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.2%→20.4%signal0 K — K% 21.2% (signal) tempered to career ~19.2% → projected 20.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.69signal4.34 ERA — xERA 4.69 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 34 IP.
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.34 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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