week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Ryan Watson
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 4.51WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0
Watson is a sell — the skill is below league and there's no luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.7%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm
- Strikeout %19.7%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~19.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
203 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
203 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
284 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —
284 / 200 TBF
ERA4.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
284 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
284 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
203 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
284 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
284 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
1050 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.7%→19.5%signal5 K — K% 19.7% (signal) tempered to career ~19.2% → projected 19.5% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95signal4.51 ERA — xERA 4.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 34 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.