BOS

2.64 xERA backs 33% K rate, not just the 1.92 ERA

2.70 xERA with 96 mph heat and a 28% K rate

96.8 mph heat, 32.6% K rate, xERA 3.15 backs it

xERA 3.35 backs the skills; .216 BABIP means more ahead

4.6% walk rate props up 3.42 xERA, strikeouts light.

xwOBA allowed .293 beats the 3.26 ERA's story

xERA 3.63 with .294 xwOBA allowed — quietly above league

13.2% barrels back the .376 xwOBA — contact is real

xwOBA .358 with a 10.8% barrel rate; contact is real.

xwOBA .353 with 17.3% K rate backs the bat

Barrel rate 12.5% with 43.5% hard-hit — contact is real.

46.6% hard-hit with 11.6% barrels — real power under the hood.

xERA 2.94 vs 4.60 ERA; .369 BABIP won't hold

1.91 ERA masks a 3.08 xERA; 17% K rate can't hold it.

BABIP .336 masking a .285 xwOBA and 31.9% hard-hit

18.3% strikeouts can't support a 4.33 ERA — xERA says 4.89

.383 BABIP masks that xERA still sits at 4.86

32% strikeouts and a .248 xwOBA to boot

85.6 mph exit velo, 29% hard-hit — contact won't hold

xwOBA .281 with 85.9 mph exit velo — no contact foundation.

31% hard-hit, 87 mph exit velo — contact can't carry the profile.

83 mph exit velo, 25% hard-hit — contact can't carry the 13.5% K rate

82.5 mph exit velo, 25% hard-hit — contact dies on arrival