MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Greg Weissert
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Greg Weissert

BOS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.75
ROSK 4ERA 3.60WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0

Weissert is a buy — the contact suppression is earned and getting sharper.

His expected ERA is 3.60, half a run better than the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the sample — not flattening out, not wobbling, trending the right direction. The contact numbers back it. He allows a 32.9% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, and 5.9% barrels against 8.0%, both on 152 batted balls, past the point where those become reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .294, below the .315 league mark, over 229 batters faced. Nothing here is being propped up by a lucky strand rate. He strikes out 24.5% of batters, walks 7.9%, and his fastball is now sitting at 94.1 mph and climbing. The skill is real. Buy. A 4 K / 3.60 ERA / 1.27 WHIP line makes him a deep-league asset, not a hold — stash the strikeout gains now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.5%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~21.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.9%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
152 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
152 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.294
believable since Aug 20.294*
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
xERA3.60
3.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
ERA3.64
3.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
54.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.5%
norm24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
229 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
229 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
.292*
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
898 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.5%→23.3%signal4 K — K% 24.5% (signal) tempered to career ~21.8% → projected 23.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.60signal3.60 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.60 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups