MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Greg Weissert
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Greg Weissert

BOS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.75
ROSK 0ERA 3.60WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Weissert is a buy — his expected ERA earns the call.

His expected ERA is 3.60, half a run better than the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. The contact quality behind it is genuinely strong: he allows hard contact on just 30.4% of batted balls against a 40% league average, and his barrel rate allowed is 5.3%, below the 8.0% mark. His expected wOBA allowed of .293 sits 22 points under league, so the results are earned rather than sequenced. His fastball is holding at 94.1 mph and has been ticking up, which matters because the velocity is stable. The strikeout rate is only slightly above average, so this is command and weak contact doing the work rather than swing-and-miss stuff. Buy. A 3.60 ERA and 1.28 WHIP make him a deep-league asset — add him now before the ratios dry up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.5%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~21.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.6%vs his norm —
171 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
171 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.293
believable since Aug 20.293*
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —
255 / 200 TBF
xERA3.60
3.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —
255 / 200 TBF
ERA3.26
3.26*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.84vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.5%
norm23.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
255 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
255 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
171 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
255 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
255 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
991 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.5%→22.8%signal0 K — K% 23.5% (signal) tempered to career ~21.8% → projected 22.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.60signal3.60 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.60 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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