MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sonny Gray
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Sonny Gray

BOS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.67, 0.43 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.73
ROSK 10ERA 3.67WHIP 1.26W 1–2SV 0

Gray is a buy — his run prevention is earned

His expected ERA is 3.67, .43 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 611 batters — well past the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. The reason is contact quality: he allows a 37.8% hard-hit rate against a 40.0% league average and a 6.5% barrel rate against 8.0%, both on 431 batted balls, well past where those numbers stabilize. He does not strike out more batters than average, and he gives up more chases than most, but he walks only 6.5% of hitters against an 8.0% league average. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, and nothing here is propped up by luck. Buy. 10 K and a 3.67 ERA over the ROS still make him a deep-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.1%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~24.1% career norm
  • Walk %6.5%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.67, 0.43 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
431 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
431 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
believable since May 30.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
611 / 200 TBF
xERA3.67
3.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.43vs his norm —
611 / 200 TBF
ERA2.69
2.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.41vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
150.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
norm22.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
611 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
norm6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
611 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
431 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
611 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
611 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.6 mph
91.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —
2205 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→22.6%signal10 K — K% 22.1% (signal) lifted to career ~24.1% → projected 22.6% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 3.67signal3.67 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.67 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.5% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep10 K ROS, 3.67 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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