week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Sonny Gray
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.61 is 1.07 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 45ERA 3.61WHIP 1.23W 4–9SV 0
Gray is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.3%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~24.1% career norm
- Walk %6.3%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.61 is 1.07 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
270 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
270 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
382 / 200 TBF
xERA3.61
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.49vs his norm —
382 / 200 TBF
ERA2.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.56vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
95.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
382 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
382 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
270 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
382 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
382 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
1392 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→22.9%signal45 K — K% 22.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.1% → projected 22.9% over ~53 remaining IP.
xERA 3.61signal3.61 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.61 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep45 K ROS, 3.61 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.