MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sonny Gray
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Sonny Gray

BOS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.87); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.87WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0

Gray is a hold — league-average across the board, nothing to chase

His xERA is 3.87, a tick below the 4.10 league average, and it is backed by 683 batters faced — well past the 200 needed for the number to be reliable. Nothing in the profile pushes in either direction. He strikes out 21.8% of batters, essentially league average at 22.0%, walks 6.7% against a league 8.0%, and allows a .303 expected wOBA against a .315 league mark. His hard-hit rate allowed is 38.3% and his barrel rate 6.8%, both a touch better than league. The one number that stands out is a 91.5 mph fastball, three mph below average, but it has not cost him results. The xERA does trend down across the sample, so the skill is holding. This is a stable, average arm — no edge to buy and no reason to sell. Hold. A 3.87 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 0 K is a fringe hold at best — droppable when you need the roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.8%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~24.1% career norm
  • Walk %6.7%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.87)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
38.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
483 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
483 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
believable since May 30.303*
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
683 / 200 TBF
xERA3.87
3.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.23vs his norm —
683 / 200 TBF
ERA2.72
2.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.38vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.8%
norm21.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
683 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
683 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.284
.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
483 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.0%vs his norm —
683 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.2%
33.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
683 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
2474 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.8%→22.3%signal0 K — K% 21.8% (signal) lifted to career ~24.1% → projected 22.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.87signal3.87 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.87 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.87 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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