week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Garrett Crochet
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.350 elevated and unstable, the 6.30 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.06 is +0.96 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 56ERA 4.19WHIP 1.30W 3–6SV 0
Crochet is a hold — the skill is below league, not a buy.
ROS projects K 37 YTD → 56 ROS, ERA 6.30 YTD → 4.19 ROS, WHIP 1.47 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.8%—−4.7% ▼vs his ~31.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.350 elevated and unstable — the 6.30 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.06 is +0.96 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 200 TBF
ERA6.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.20vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
30 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm −4.7% ▼
138 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm +1.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.0% norm — expect it to fall.
138 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.350
lg avg .295 ▲+.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
518 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→29.6%signal56 K — K% 26.8% (signal) lifted to career ~31.4% → projected 29.6% over ~41 remaining IP.
xERA 5.06noise4.19 ERA — xERA 5.06 (noise) blended 9% skill / 91% league 4.10 at 30 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 9%…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop56 K ROS, 4.19 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.