MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Garrett Whitlock

BOS·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High BABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.84 is 0.71 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83
ROSK 21ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 1–4SV 0

Whitlock is a sell-high — his BABIP luck won't last.

His ERA is 2.13, but the number keeping it down is his BABIP-against: .263, 32 points below league average. BABIP-against needs about 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 99 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.84, 0.71 above his actual ERA, pointing at regression ahead. The underlying skill is real: he strikes out 27.6% of batters, limits hard contact (33.3% hard-hit allowed), and generates whiffs (16.2% swinging-strike rate) and chases (41.6%) well above league. But the ERA is still being flattered by the BABIP. Limited data — this call rests on the first stable sample of the season — but the mechanism is clear. Sell high. 21 K with 3.69 ERA and 1-4 W is a deep-league sell; cash in before BABIP regresses.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.6%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~27.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.84 is 0.71 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
4.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
.263*
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
xERA2.84
2.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
ERA2.13
2.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.6%
norm27.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
145 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.1%
norm4.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −1.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~6.0% norm — expect it to rise.
145 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.2%
16.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Chase %41.6%
41.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.1%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
538 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.6%→27.3%signal21 K — K% 27.6% (signal) tempered to career ~27.0% → projected 27.3% over ~17 remaining…
xERA 2.84noise3.69 ERA — xERA 2.84 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 4.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.07 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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