191 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL
Mickey Gasper
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.72 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .258R 5RBI 2SB 0
Gasper is a buy — the on-base skill is real and stable.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.8%—+8.5% ▲vs his ~1.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +8.5% ▲
133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.374
lg avg .315 ▲+.059vs his norm —
191 / 160 PA
wOBA.383
lg avg .315 ▲+.068vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
191 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —
191 / 60 PA
Walk %13.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
191 / 120 PA
BABIP.282
lg avg .295 ▼−.013vs his norm +.052 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
133 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
191 / 50 PA
Chase %20.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
191 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.8%→4.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.8% (signal) tempered to career ~1.3% → projected 4.7%.
BABIP 0.282→0.338 regressednoise.258 AVG — BABIP 0.282 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.349 (xBA 0.268) → 0.338.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 17 G) over ~34 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.