225 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL
Mickey Gasper
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.68 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Gasper is a buy — his eye is doing the work and the contact is real
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.4%—+9.1% ▲vs his ~1.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +9.1% ▲
154 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.353
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —
225 / 160 PA
wOBA.361
lg avg .315 ▲+.046vs his norm —
225 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
225 / 60 PA
Walk %12.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
225 / 120 PA
BABIP.266
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm +.036 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
154 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
225 / 50 PA
Chase %21.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
225 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.4%→5.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.4% (signal) tempered to career ~1.3% → projected 5.3%.
BABIP 0.266→0.313 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.266 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.324 (xBA 0.249) → 0.313.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 17 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.