week 17
this weekHOLD
last week—
Zack Kelly
data as of July 22, 2026·week 17
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.94); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 17ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Kelly is a hold — league average, nothing to push either way.
ROS projects K 14 YTD → 17 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.7%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.94)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
49 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
lg avg .315 ▲+.053vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
71 / 200 TBF
xERA5.94
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.84vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
71 / 200 TBF
ERA3.31
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.79vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
71 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.3% norm — expect it to rise.
71 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
71 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
71 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
283 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.7%→21.7%signal17 K — K% 19.7% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 21.7% over ~18 remaining IP.
xERA 5.94noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.94 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.