week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Aroldis Chapman
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Chapman is a sell-high — ERA is pure luck, xERA says regression.
His ERA sits at 0.48, but that number is a mirage built on an unrepeatable BABIP-against of .231 — 64 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has only 39. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.93, nearly two and a half runs higher, and while the sample is still small, the direction is clear. Limited data: this call rests on the largest gap between surface and skill on the staff. He does strike out 34.7% of batters, well above league average, which is real. But the ERA is not. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.93 is 2.45 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.2%too early to trust
NOISE39 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%too early to trust
NOISE39 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.273
lg avg .315 ▼−.042too early to trust
NOISE72 / 200 TBF
xERA2.93
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.17too early to trust
NOISE72 / 200 TBF
ERA0.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.62too early to trust
NOISE18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL72 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%too early to trust
NOISE72 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.231
lg avg .295 ▼−.064too early to trust
NOISE39 / 800 BIP