week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Aroldis Chapman
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.82); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 33ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 9–17
Chapman is a hold — no signal to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 25 YTD → 33 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.8%—−9.9% ▼vs his ~39.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
72 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
72 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 200 TBF
xERA2.82
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.28vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 200 TBF
ERA2.20
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.90vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
28.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm −9.9% ▼
121 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −2.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.2% norm — expect it to rise.
121 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
lg avg .295 ▲+.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
72 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
456 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.8%→36.0%signal33 K — K% 29.8% (signal) lifted to career ~39.7% → projected 36.0% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 2.82noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.82 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)9-17 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard25 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.