week 25
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL
Aroldis Chapman
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.68, 1.42 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 7ERA 2.68WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 2–4
Chapman is a buy — his velocity and expected ERA are both moving the right way.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %32.3%—−7.4% ▼vs his ~39.7% career norm
- Walk %10.0%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~12.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.68, 1.42 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
115 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
115 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.255
lg avg .315 ▼−.060vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
xERA2.68
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.42vs his norm —
201 / 200 TBF
ERA2.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
48.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %32.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.3%vs his norm −7.4% ▼
201 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
201 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
201 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.0 mphvs his norm —
788 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 32.3%→36.0%signal7 K — K% 32.3% (signal) lifted to career ~39.7% → projected 36.0% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.68signal2.68 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.68 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.0% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard15 SV, 2.68 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.