Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryPaul
55K ←42
3.70ERA →3.68
1.24WHIP1.24
0–0W →1–2
17–31SV →19–34
Current Season
AroldisCategoryPaul
25K ←24
0.48ERA ←3.63
0.86WHIP →0.72
0W →1
12SV →15
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Sewald
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.76)
Chapman projects 55 K (3.70 ERA) vs Sewald's 42 K (3.68 ERA). The ERA and WHIP (1.24 both) are identical; the K gap drives the sell-high verdict on Chapman.