week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Paul Sewald
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.12); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.97WHIP 1.14W 0–0SV 0–0
Sewald is a hold — league-average skill, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 24 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 3.63 YTD → 3.97 ROS, WHIP 0.72 YTD → 1.14 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.2%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~28.6% career norm
- Walk %5.9%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
149 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
149 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
xERA4.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
ERA4.72
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.62vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
53.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
219 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
219 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.200
lg avg .295 ▼−.095vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
854 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.2%→26.3%signal0 K — K% 24.2% (signal) lifted to career ~28.6% → projected 26.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.12signal3.97 ERA — xERA 4.12 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.14 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep15 SV, 3.97 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.