week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Paul Sewald
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.29); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5WHIP 1.24ERA 3.71W 0–0SV 2–4
Sewald is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable driving it.
ROS projects K 24 YTD → 5 ROS, WHIP 0.72 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.8%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~28.6% career norm
- Walk %6.2%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.29)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA4.29
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.19vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA5.21
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.11vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
46.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.216
lg avg .295 ▼−.079vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
759 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→27.2%signal5 K — K% 25.8% (signal) lifted to career ~28.6% → projected 27.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.29noise3.71 ERA — xERA 4.29 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 6.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard18 SV, 3.71 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.