Rest of Season Projection
AdrianCategoryAroldis
45K →52
3.61ERA ←3.70
1.23WHIP ←1.24
4–8W ←0–0
1–2SV →15–29
Current Season
AdrianCategoryAroldis
35K ←25
3.90ERA →0.48
1.07WHIP →0.86
4W ←0
1SV →12
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adrian Morejon
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.71 sits 1.39 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.321 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.220 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.97 is 2.51 above the ERA — regression coming
Adrian Morejon: 45 K / 3.61 ERA. Aroldis Chapman: 52 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).