Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryRiley
55K ←41
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP →1.23
0–0W →3–7
17–31SV ←16–30
Current Season
AroldisCategoryRiley
25K →27
0.48ERA ←3.20
0.86WHIP ←0.99
0W →3
12SV →14
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Riley O'Brien
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.79)
Aroldis Chapman: 55 K / 3.70 ERA. Riley O'Brien: 41 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).