week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Riley O'Brien
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.36); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.73WHIP 1.24W 2–4SV 8–16
O'Brien is a hold — league-average metrics, nothing to trade on.
ROS projects K 27 YTD → 23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.6%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.36)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
165 / 200 TBF
xERA4.36
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.26vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
165 / 200 TBF
ERA3.43
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.67vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
39.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
165 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −2.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.5% norm — expect it to rise.
165 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.284
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
165 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
165 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.2 mphvs his norm —
631 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→23.7%signal23 K — K% 23.6% (signal) held to career ~23.8% → projected 23.7% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 4.36noise3.73 ERA — xERA 4.36 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)8-16 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard26 SV, 3.73 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.