week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Riley O'Brien
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.99 +0.89 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.54WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0–0
O'Brien is a sell — the skill under the ERA is below league.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm
- Walk %10.5%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~10.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.99 +0.89 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
276 / 200 TBF
xERA4.99
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.89vs his norm —
276 / 200 TBF
ERA4.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.02vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
276 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
276 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
276 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
276 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.7 mphvs his norm —
1064 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.2%→23.5%signal0 K — K% 23.2% (signal) held to career ~23.8% → projected 23.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.99signal4.54 ERA — xERA 4.99 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop14 SV, 4.54 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.