week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Riley O'Brien
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.83 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 4.58WHIP 1.36W 0–1SV 2–3
O'Brien is a sell — the stuff is real, the results are not
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.7%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm
- Walk %10.4%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~10.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
158 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
158 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.343
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
251 / 200 TBF
xERA5.05
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.95vs his norm —
251 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
58 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
251 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
251 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
158 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
251 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
251 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.8 mphvs his norm —
979 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→23.2%signal5 K — K% 22.7% (signal) lifted to career ~23.8% → projected 23.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 5.05signal4.58 ERA — xERA 5.05 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop17 SV, 4.58 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.