MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 28, 2026
Portrait of Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien
STL · P
Change to
Ryan Johnson
LAA · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Riley O'Brien wins 1 (WHIP); Ryan Johnson wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Riley O'Brien
97.7
Ryan Johnson
92.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Riley O'Brien
11.9%
Ryan Johnson
10.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Riley O'Brien
23.2%
Ryan Johnson
18.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Riley O'Brien
29.2%
Ryan Johnson
28.4%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Riley O'Brien
42.2%
Ryan Johnson
35.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Riley O'Brien
7.5%
Ryan Johnson
9.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Riley O'Brien
.340
Ryan Johnson
.336
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Riley O'Brien
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.20
4.54
Ryan Johnson
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 12.83
4.45
WHIPlower is better
Riley O'Brien
.9002.55
now 0.99
1.36
Ryan Johnson
.9002.55
now 2.33
1.37

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Riley O'Brien
4037.80
now 27
0
Ryan Johnson
4037.80
now 7
0
Winshigher is better
Riley O'Brien
.0004.20
now 3
0–0
Ryan Johnson
.0004.20
now 0
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellRiley O'Brien — sell.conf 0.82
SellRyan Johnson — sell.conf 0.78
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