MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 5, 2026
week 19
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Ryan Johnson

LAA·P
data as of August 5, 2026·week 19
flipped from HOLD on August 5, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.31 +1.21 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 11ERA 4.75WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0

Johnson is a sell — his xERA is above league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 5.31, more than a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed sits at .351, also well above league. He allows hard contact at a 36.2% clip and barrels at 9.9%, both worse than league averages, and his fastball sits at 92.1 mph, below the 94.0 league mark. His strikeout rate is 17.5%, well under the 22.0% average, and his walk rate is elevated. There is no bad-luck story here — the skill metrics are consistently below league and trending worse. The league is not overpaying for a name; this is what his stuff produces. Sell. 11 K / 4.75 ERA / 1.40 WHIP — droppable in shallow formats; a deep-league streamer at best, not a keeper.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.5%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~16.0% career norm
  • Walk %9.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.31 +1.21 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
152 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
152 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.351
believable since Aug 2.351*
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
xERA5.31
5.31*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.21vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
ERA7.63
7.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.53vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
norm17.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
211 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
norm9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
211 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.293
.293*
lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
29.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.1 mph
92.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —
840 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→16.8%signal11 K — K% 17.5% (signal) tempered to career ~16.0% → projected 16.8% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 5.31signal4.75 ERA — xERA 5.31 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 13 IP.
BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups