MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Ryan Johnson

LAA·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xERA 4.88 +0.78 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.78
ROSK 0ERA 4.47WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0

Johnson is a sell — the contact he allows is too loud.

Batters are squaring him up. His expected wOBA allowed is .337, .022 above the league average of .315, and his expected ERA of 4.88 sits .78 above league — both past the point where they become reliable. His barrel rate allowed is 9.7% against a league average of 8.0%, and his expected ERA has been stepping up across the season, not leveling off. There is no luck story to fall back on here. His strikeout rate of 18.5% is below league average, and his walk rate of 9.5% is above it, so he is not missing bats and he is giving out free passes. The stuff does not support better results. Sell. 0 K and a 4.47 ERA rest-of-season is waiver-wire streaming-only — cut this drag loose.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.5%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~16.0% career norm
  • Walk %9.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.88 +0.78 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
289 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
289 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337*
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
410 / 200 TBF
xERA4.88
4.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.78vs his norm —
410 / 200 TBF
ERA4.93
4.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.83vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
norm18.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
410 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
norm9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
410 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
289 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.0%vs his norm —
410 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
410 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
1636 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→17.7%signal0 K — K% 18.5% (signal) tempered to career ~16.0% → projected 17.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.88signal4.47 ERA — xERA 4.88 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 13 IP.
BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.47 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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