Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryBryan
55K ←49
3.70ERA →3.67
1.24WHIP1.24
0–0W →1–2
17–31SV →19–36
Current Season
AroldisCategoryBryan
25K →29
0.48ERA ←2.22
0.86WHIP ←1.07
0W →1
12SV →16
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Bryan Baker
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.83 is 0.70 above the ERA — regression coming
Aroldis Chapman: 55 K / 3.70 ERA. Bryan Baker: 49 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).